Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst.
That philosophical advice has never been more true than it is for the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steel City is purchasing canned goods, and hunkering down in doomsday shelters for the distinct possibility they could be rolling with Mason Rudolph as their starting quarterback in 2025.
Aaron Rodgers appears to be delaying a decision to sign with the Steelers in a bid to avoid as much mini-camp or human contact as he possibly can. Or he doesn’t even know what he wants to do without a weekend alone in a cave. As a result the NFL draft’s stakes are insanely high for the Steelers.
It now looks increasingly likely that they will have to play Russian Roulette and pull the trigger on a risky quarterback prospect. However, all first front quarterbacks are not created equally. For every Aaron Rodgers picked 24th in the 2005 draft, there’s a Kenny Pickett. When you examine the quarterbacks taken between pick 20 and pick 32 since 2005, it makes their decision appear even more daunting.
Steelers worst case scenario: An unholy cocktail Johnny Manziel/ Brady Quinn/Teddy Bridgewater-type QBs
If the Steelers dive in on a QB, they could end up in a pool of hot water. By then, Mike Tomlin’s future is the least of their concerns when the organization is undergoing reconstructive surgery.
Turning into Cleveland by drafting poorly at quarterback again is a moment of self-realization that would have Steeler Nation entering therapy en masse. It could be Jaxson Dart, Shedeur Sanders or (gulp) Jalen Milroe who arrives. Sanders is reminiscent of Teddy Bridgewater and Milroe has that Johnny Manziel escapability to him, but he’s an erratic distributor.
Their downfall could be Sanders’ patting Morse code onto the pigskin while taking 70 sacks, Jalen Milroe fishtailing it out of the pocket at the drop of a hat or Jaxson Dart dissolving like a marshmallow under pressure. In four or fewer years, these quarterbacks will pull an Irish exit from the crater they left behind to decamp for another city on the next phase of their respective Sam Darnold Redemption Tour.
Steelers best case scenario: Hitting Aaron Rodgers/Lamar Jackson/Jordan Love territory
If we use the last 20 years as a barometer of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ chance to actually hit the jackpot, they’re not terrible. There’s a 20 percent chance they wind up with a real stinker, but have about a 30 percent chance of drafting a franchise quarterback. Of the 10 quarterbacks taken in that range since 2005 three have survived the dog-eat-dog world of NFL quarterbacks. Rodgers and Jackson fell and spent their draft days in agony. Love was a high-risk, high-reward thrower whom the Packers thought they could tame. It’s safe to say it was a success.
If the Steelers stumble upon a passer who can stake a claim in this class of late first-round picks, the Black and Yellow are truly Midas-touched. Imagine Jaxson Dart learning to spell his name correctly, and slinging well, you know…arrows to DK Metcalf.
Then there’s Shedeur Sanders in Pittsburgh, which feels like a Ferrari at a truck stop. But escaping distractions may be just what he needs. All Arthur Smith has to do is administer local anesthesia and drill it into his head to get the ball out quickly as if he works for Lumen Industries and develops a new personality that embraces the quick passing game.
Jalen Milroe could also be the fleet-footed quarterback Frankenstein that Smith has tried thrice to develop between Atlanta and Pittsburgh. The Steelers discover he’s got the secret sauce with bourbon that Justin Fields, Marcus Mariota, and Desmond Ridder lacked.
Is it likely? Obviously not. But it’s possible. A year ago, Sean Payton found the soulmate for the second half of his coaching career in Bo Nix with the 12th pick, but he was projected as a late first-rounder or second-day pick by most prognosticators. As a rookie, he threw for nearly 30 touchdowns and just under 3,800 yards during a season that culminated in a first-round playoff departure. The only thing better would be getting a franchise quarterback to backup Aaron Rodgers.