Steelers playoff scenarios: What’s at stake win or lose in Week 16 vs. Ravens
By Quinn Everts
The Pittsburgh Steelers path to winning the AFC North is pretty easy in Week 16, when they take on the Baltimore Ravens in a rare Saturday game: win the game, and the Steelers win the division.
As things stand, Pittsburgh (10-4) holds a one-game lead over the Baltimore Ravens (9-5) in the AFC North standings. A win would put Pittsburgh at 11-4, a full two games ahead of Baltimore with two games remaining — and give Pittsburgh the tiebreaker over Baltimore. The Steelers beat the Ravens in their first matchup, 18-16, in November.
A loss to Baltimore would make the AFC North race considerably more interesting. If the Ravens win, Pittsburgh and Baltimore will be tied at 10-5, splitting the season series 1-1.
The tiebreaker in the NFL after head-to-head is divisional record, and both teams would be 3-1 in AFC North play with one divisional game remaining (Pittsburgh plays Cincinnati and Baltimore plays Cleveland in Week 18.) In that case, the race could very well come down to the final week of the season. If Baltimore wins on Saturday, and the Steelers and Ravens end the season with the same record but only one of them wins in Week 18, that team will win the AFC North.
With Kansas City looming on Christmas, things could get hairy for the Steelers with a loss on Saturday.
If Baltimore wins on Saturday, then Pittsburgh and Baltimore end with the same record, and have the same result in Week 18 against AFC North foes, the division tiebreak could go to a third procedure, which would be "record in common games" — an area the Steelers have the edge in because they beat the Raiders, and the Ravens did not.
A win on Saturday makes things simple. A loss on Saturday makes things extremely complicated.
Pittsburgh is still fighting for a better seed
Even if Pittsburgh wins on Saturday and clinches the AFC North, it will still have plenty to play for in its final two games. This team has already clinched a playoff berth, but where they'll end up in the standings — and who they will play in the playoffs — is to be determined.
A win against Baltimore would bring the Steelers within a half-game of the Buffalo Bills for the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Buffalo plays the Patriots twice and the Jets once to finish out the season, so overtaking them might be tough — but chaos is expected in the final weeks of the NFL season.
A loss to Baltimore would make overtaking Buffalo a tall task — it would require Buffalo to lose two of its final three games, as the Bills are currently 3-0 in divisional play and would have the edge over Pittsburgh in that regard — which would be the tiebreaker between Buffalo and Pittsburgh should we get to that point.