Steve Sarkisian is taking a huge gamble on Arch Manning based on Quinn Ewers report

The dollars and cents have to make sense first. In the immediate aftermath of Quinn Ewers foregoing his final year of eligibility to turn pro and enter the 2025 NFL Draft, all eyes are on Arch Manning taking over as the Texas Longhorns' starting quarterback next fall. 2025 will be Manning's third college football season, but he was really only a gadget player down the stretch for the Longhorns.

Manning offers a ton of upside, in addition to his famous last name. However, there is some pause for concern when it comes to Texas not welcoming Ewers back for another season. According to Chip Brown at Horns247, Ewers turned down an $8 million NIL to transfer elsewhere this offseason. He had no interest in playing anywhere else but Texas, so he opted to turn pro and leave college behind him.

That big number seems staggering, but that is what the market indicated Ewers would make if he left Texas for one last ride. Truth be told, he may not even make that as a rookie. This is because there are no guarantees he will even be a first-round quarterback. Injury concerns and a lack of feel in the pocket may have some NFL talent evaluators down on his howitzer of a right arm. $8 million, people!

All I know is Manning better be good next season or Texas just made a GOB Bluth huge mistake.

Steve Sarkisian betting big on Arch Manning with Quinn Ewers leaving

More so than ever, I am convinced that Steve Sarkisian is not going to take an NFL job this offseason. In time, that big opportunity may present itself again to the talented head coach of the Longhorns. Just not right now. This is because he and his staff seemed to have made a huge decision when it comes to the most important position on the field. They want to see what Manning is all about now.

Overall, I do not think that Ewers really could have done much more to improve his draft stock. Even if he led Texas or somebody else to a 16-0 record and a national championship with a Heisman Trophy along the way, Ewers would still not be able to shake his injury-prone label. Clobbering guys years younger than at 23 and 24-years-old may not impress talent evaluators all that much in Ewers' case.

In a way, both parties made the right and wrong decision. For Ewers, he should go where he is wanted. Another team may have wanted him more than Texas, but he only has eyes for Texas. $8 million is a ton of money for one season, but Ewers seems like the guy who is not afraid to bet on himself. He will be entering the NFL with a bit of a chip on his shoulder, but will it pan out for him?

As for Texas, the Longhorns are controlling the narrative surrounding this. They have made their bed and they must now lie in it. Manning is their guy, for better or worse. He could be as good as his grandfather and famous uncles were in college, but the game has changed considerably since any of them last played a down. I love Manning's upside, but I do think the Longhorns pull back under him.

This is a move for winning a national championship in 2026, with an outside shot at one for 2025.