Sunday's Week 18 NFL DFS bargain bin for main slate

This is Week 18, which means there are a whole bunch of teams with nothing to play for. Some of those are teams hope to stay healthy into the playoffs, while others are out of the playoff picture and are just playing for pride, incentives, future contracts, or they've checked out and would rather be napping on a beach.

Unfortunately, there are many more variables in Week 18 to overcome when setting your DFS lineups this week. Who exactly will replace Saquon Barkley? Will it be one or three guys? Should I just stack games where teams need wins for their playoff chances? And the questions go on and on if you are putting maximum effort into breaking down this last regular season slate.

First off, when you look at the over/unders this weekend, there is no game even remotely close to the Lions-Vikings matchup which has 56.5 total. But, that game is not on the main slate since it is the Sunday Night Football matchup. The DraftKings main slate has 13 games and only one game with a total over 44, the Falcons/Panthers at 48. That means we have a lot of blah games to choose players from. So, let's choose!

Sunday's Week 18 NFL DFS bargain bin for main slate

1. Quarterbacks
2. Running backs
3. Wide receivers
4. Tight ends

Quarterbacks

Joe Flacco, Colts vs. Jaguars ($5.4k)

Back in Week 5 Joe Flacco faced the Jacksonville Jaguars and completed 33-of-44 passes for 359 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions. It was a masterful display by Old Joe, but of course not all of his starts this season went quite as well. But, last week, despite some bad turnovers against the Giants, he still managed to throw for 330 yards and two touchdowns and 21.3 DK points. I see no reason he can't duplicate that came with upside for more.

Geno Smith, Seahawks at Rams ($5.5k)

The Los Angeles Rams are resting their players for some reason, while the Seattle Seahawks have been eliminated from the playoffs. Those facts should make for a fairly mundane affair as they get through a meaningless game, but, Geno Smith has a lot of cash to win in this meaningless game. He needs 185 passing yards to hit his yardage bonus of $2 million and if he can beat the Rams, he gets his 10th win, which is another $2 million. And finally, he is currently sporting a 70.2 completion percentage, which would give him another $2 million. He would be at risk of lowering that enough to miss out on that escalator, but he's almost assured the 185 yards and with the Rams starting Jimmy Garoppollo, his chances of getting the win are also decent.

Running backs

Michael Carter, Cardinals vs. 49ers ($4.7k)

Throughout the season we've watched as the San Francisco 49ers run defense fell apart. They've now allowed a 100 yard rusher in five of their last six games along with seven rushing touchdowns in that span. They rank 28th in EPA allowed per rush and they will likely rest some starters in a meaningless game which Brock Purdy won't play in due to injury.

As for the Arizona Cardinals, Carter is the last man standing after James Conner and Trey Benson done for the season. He also played well in relief of Conner last week, rushing 13 times for 70 yards and catching both his targets for 11 more yards.

Tony Pollard, Titans at Texans ($6.2k)

Tony Pollard is questionable to play in this game for the Tennessee Titans while Tyjae Spears is out. Normally, I'd expect Pollard to sit out this game, as he's not 100% and it's meaningless, but, contract incentives dictate that Pollard will at least push hard to play if he can. Pollard needs 84 yards rushing to trigger a 250k bonus, and two rushing touchdowns to trigger another 250k bonus. The Houston Texans should rest their starters at some point, as they are locked into the 4 seed ahead of the playoffs. When he faced the Texans in Week 12, he rushed for 119 yards and a touchdown and caught three passes for 10 yards. Add in the Texans likely resting, and Pollard's incentives, and I'd like to see what he can do.

Wide receivers

Alec Pierce ($5k), Michael Pittman ($5.2k), Josh Downs ($5.3k), Colts vs. Jaguars

All three of the Indianapolis Colts receivers have good upside this week with Joe Flacco throwing them the ball against a weak Jaguars pass defense. Last week it was a big helping of Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman, while Josh Downs only saw four targets to their 9 and 10 targets respectively. Pierce led the way, but both he and Pittman topped 100 yards and were well worth their price to roster. If you play Flacco this week, you'll want to pair him with one or two of these guys. The poor showing from Downs is concerning, but he also shouldn't be a popular play. If you are looking to get a little risky, Downs is your guy, while Pierce looks like a high upside play, but may be a little too popular.

Jalen McMillan, Buccaneers vs. Saints ($5.1k)

McMillan has an amazing six touchdowns in his last four games. During that span, he's averaged 4.3 receptions on 6.3 targets for 60.5 yards. We can't expect the touchdowns with this kind of frequency, but he's now seen five red zone targets to three for Mike Evans over the last four weeks. He's a priority near the goal line it seems and this is a must-win game for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make sure they stay in the playoffs. Yes, Baker Mayfield will want to do all he can to get Mike Evans his 11th straight 1,000 yards season, but that's likely only going to help get McMillan open in the end zone again.

Tight ends

Devin Culp ($2.8k), Payne Durham ($3.2k), Buccaneers vs. Saints

If you are looking to punt tight end, Devin Kulp or Payne Durham are playing in a meaningful game and are both seeing work with Cade Otton out. I'd probably just lean Culp here and hope for a touchdown if you're going super cheap at the tight end position.

Brock Bowers ($6.6k), Raiders vs. Chargers

Brock Bowers is the most expensive tight end, and for good reason. This week, he's going for the record for tight end receptions, needing nine total. Not the rookie record, which he's already beaten, but the overall record of 116 held by Zach Ertz. He has hit nine receptions six times this season, so there is no reason not to go for it in a meaningless game. And, this is such an awful week for tight ends that paying up for Bowers makes plenty of sense.