There are several reasons why I am so beyond dubious of Arch Manning leaving school any earlier than he has to. The latest quarterbacking prodigy of the Manning Family is about to enter his third season at Texas and his first as the starter. He backed up Quinn Ewers the last two seasons in Austin. While he could turn pro and enter the 2026 NFL Draft after next season, I highly doubt that he will.
Clearly, ESPN's Adam Schefter agrees with me. The NFL insider looked for logic surrounding the situation while appearing on Get Up on Thursday morning. He cited that none of his famous family members left early, as well as NIL being more than enough of a reason not to go chasing the bag. There are teams that may want to take a quarterback in the 2026 NFL Draft as opposed to this one.
Schefter covers the NFL, but he is a Michigan alum and has a pretty good feel on the college game.
"First of all, there's no guarantees that Arch Manning's coming out after next year. It sounds like he certainly could be staying beyond next year. I'm not a college football insider, but none of the Mannings ever went out early, and I don't know with NIL money being what it is why Arch would do that. So, all of this conversation about 'tanking for Arch next year,' he could be in the draft in 2027, not even next year."
There are two things that everyone is missing when it comes to if and when Manning will declare for the NFL Draft. The first is that he is a Manning, meaning everything will be calculated to ensure himself that he will be going to the right situation. Peyton Manning avoided the New York Jets, while Eli Manning refused to play for the then-San Diego Chargers. The other is he has started two games?!
Manning offers a ton of promise, but he has been far more of a runner than a thrower over at Texas.
Texas QB Arch Manning is highly unlikely to enter the 2026 NFL Draft
Yes, NIL will probably be a factor in helping keep Manning in school, but it is not like his family is cash poor or anything like that. Playing for free is just not a smart business decision at this stage of the game in major college football. Then again, Manning has largely ridden the coattails of his famous last name up to this point. He has played in a handful of games, but has two career starts under his belt.
Without question, the single best thing Manning can do for himself is gain experience starting games in a Power Four league. For him to be in this position at a traditional power like Texas makes this even better. Then again, it can be a double-edged sword playing at a school of Texas' gravitas. We have built Manning up into some godlike figure, but he is still just a college kid trying to figure it all out.
In my estimation, a prospective NFL Draft quarterback needs around 30 career starts to be ready for what comes next. This means you need to be a starter for at or around two seasons. Not everyone is going to be able to start for three years, but the five that were afforded to Bo Nix at Oregon and at Auburn before that are massive reasons he has been so successful so far with the Denver Broncos.
At the end of the day, this is why the Mannings will never let Arch leave school any earlier than 2027.