Surprising national title favorite highlights fatal flaw of College Football Playoff seeding

Some folks think Notre Dame is overrated and that the Fighting Irish will unceremoniously lose in the College Football Playoff, coming up just short on the biggest stages like it has in years past.

But one data system thinks think that Notre Dame is the best team in the country and has the best chance at winning the College Football Playoff National Championship.

The account @CFP_Data on Twitter / X is dedicated to college football analytics, and it believes the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have the best chance of bringing home a national championship this season, despite not earning a first-round bye and having to play Indiana in the first round, then potentially Georgia in the second round.

Notre Dame's one loss skews public view

Losing to Northern Illinois is the worst loss that any team in the field of 12 has suffered this season. But it's also the only loss that Notre Dame has suffered this season. So it's not wholly surprising that Notre Dame is well-liked by analytics models like this; the Fighting Irish have been dominant for the most part, including wins against Texas A&M, Louisville, USC, Army and Navy.

They're not flashy wins for the most part, and there aren't any wins against powerhouse teams, but Notre Dame has seldom been in danger of losing games this season, and that's nothing to scoff at.

Oregon and Texas are just behind Notre Dame on this list, and most fans would agree those two teams do have great shots at the CFP National Championship. So the fact this model put two teams the public believes could very well win it all at No. 2 and No. 3 might give it a little more viability.

Before Notre Dame can think about a national championship, it has to win the Indiana championship, by beating the Hoosiers in South Bend. This model believes the Fighting Irish have an 81% chance of doing that — that's a lot of confidence.