How likely is Texas A&M to make the College Football Playoff? Game-by-game predictions for rest of the season

The Aggies are still well in the hunt for the SEC title and with it, a spot in the 12-team playoff.
Nov 16, 2024; College Station, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies wide receiver Ashton Bethel-Roman (87) reacts after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the New Mexico State Aggies at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images
Nov 16, 2024; College Station, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies wide receiver Ashton Bethel-Roman (87) reacts after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the New Mexico State Aggies at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images / Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images
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Texas A&M went under the radar in Week 12, mostly due to the fact that it got an easy 38-3 win over New Mexico State — which it paid $1.6 million to play.

Nevertheless, a win is a win and in a stacked SEC this season every win matters. The Aggies (8-2) currently sit in second place but the next two weeks will prove to be the most crucial in program history.

ESPN's Playoff Predictor offers Texas A&M a 13 percent chance at making the College Football Playoff, essentially meaning the team must win out and earn an automatic bid via being crowned SEC champions.

But there are still alternate paths that we can explore but the hurdles to get there are very high.

What is Texas A&M's path to the playoff?

There's only one clear path for the Aggies and that's to win out and win the SEC. However, another path remains but it will need some help from conference rivals to get it done - which isn't out of the question.

Texas A&M v. Auburn (Nov. 23)

The Tigers have struggled in head coach Hugh Freeze's second season at the helm but flashes of brilliance from young talent he's recruited could be the Aggies' biggest threat. That being said, Texas A&M still have a 58 percent chance to take care of business on the road and increase its odds of making the SEC title game.

Texas v. Texas A&M (Nov. 29)

This will be the game everyone is looking forward to. A revival of an old Big Eight conference rivalry could decide the fate of the SEC - ironic, no? However, the Aggies only have a 22 percent chance of upsetting the conference-leading Longhorns.

In the event Texas A&M does pull off the massive upset, it has some flexibility with the playoff committee. Obviously, winning the SEC would earn it a first-round bye but a loss doesn't eliminate it. The Aggies would have a 58 percent chance to be selected as the 11-seed, likely a reward for taking down the Longhorns.

However, if they lose to Texas and miss the SEC title game - the most likely scenario given Georgia would pass them on a tiebreaker — or they lose to Texas but make it to the SEC title game (if Georgia falters) then they still wouldn't qualify. A loss in Atlanta would probably be a second consecutive such result against the dreaded Longhorns.

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