Grade the take: Should Texas be out of College Football Playoff with Texas A&M loss?

With two weeks left in the 2024 college football regular season, there may not be a team eliciting a more visceral reaction when it comes to the College Football Playoff field than the Texas Longhorns. Entering Week 13, Texas is 9-1 on the year, currently ranked No. 3 in the nation and slotted into the No. 2 seed in the playoff picture as the projected SEC champion. I think people are souring on them...

For all intents and purposes, the SEC is going to get in at least four teams, possibly five if someone in the Big Ten or Notre Dame screws up. That is still very much in play. However, I think you can argue that Texas is not as close to a playoff lock as you would think. Their best win of the nine on their resume is a close call on the road over Vanderbilt. The Longhorns' loss was a home defeat to Georgia.

Not to say that he is the architect of this new great debate we are having, but Chris Vannini of The Athletic put it bluntly. He is skeptical of the Longhorns' chances of making the playoff at 10-2 with a loss to Texas A&M. His former colleague Andy Staples felt the same way in his 12-team bracket for On3. I will take it a step further and say an A&M loss is worse for Texas than even a loss to Kentucky.

A Kentucky loss would be bad, but not having a single win of quality would probably be even worse...

Let's grade Vannini's take: Should Texas be out of the College Football Playoff with a Texas A&M loss?

Should Texas miss the College Football Playoff with a loss to Texas A&M?

To help set the stage for what I am about to do, there are currently seven teams in the SEC I would say have a great to halfway decent chance of making the playoff. We have one one-loss team in Texas. We also have a very intriguing three-loss South Carolina team. Most importantly, we have five high-quality, two-loss teams in Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Texas A&M. So let's get to it!

A loss by the Longhorns to Texas A&M would send the Aggies to Atlanta over them. A 10-2 Texas A&M team would only have losses to South Carolina and Notre Dame in the non-conference. I do not know exactly who A&M would play, but it would not be Texas. This is because Georgia beat Texas, and both Alabama and Ole Miss beat Georgia. I think that Alabama would go to Atlanta in that situation.

While the loser of presumably Alabama vs. Texas A&M for the SEC Championship could and would probably be unfairly punished for losing a third game by the Selection Committee, that still leaves Georgia, Ole Miss and Tennessee with a better resume over Texas, assuming they all finish 10-2. To be totally honest, Alabama at 10-3 with an SEC Championship loss has a better case than 10-2 Texas.

Just to make it simpler on us, the only upset we get the rest of the way in the SEC is Texas A&M beating Texas. Chalk prevails elsewhere. You would have Alabama beating Texas A&M to win the SEC and be presumably the No. 2 seed in the 12-team tournament. Texas A&M should be out with a third loss. Georgia and Ole Miss would be in comfortably. Tennessee gets in because of the Alabama win.

So at that point, the SEC would have four teams in before Texas comes into equation with Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss and Tennessee, probably in that order. I know Ole Miss beat Georgia head-to-head, but the Dawgs would have three quality wins to Ole Miss' one, and their two losses are better than the Rebels'. You then would have to debate where Texas stacks up with Texas A&M and ... South Carolina!

The Gamecocks beat the Aggies, but lost to LSU, Alabama and Ole Miss. So that would be a second quality win for Ole Miss, now that I think about it. Should South Carolina beat Clemson, that hurts the ACC's chances of getting two teams in. It also hurts one of Georgia's three quality wins. At the end of the day, the SEC would have six playoff contenders with at least one quality one, and then Texas...

Overall, it is going to be incredibly hard for anyone to defend Texas of deserving a spot into the playoff. For example, how would we view teams like Notre Dame and Penn State if they suffered second losses? Probably not favorably. Notre Dame would be viewed better than Penn State would because they actually have a quality win over Texas A&M, while Penn State would be a total fraud.

Ultimately, I cannot in good faith say that a 10-2 (6-2) Texas team with a pair of losses to Georgia and Texas A&M would have any realistic hope of making the playoff. At the end of the day, what does your resume say? They may have the talent and may play in one of the best leagues in the country, but their incredibly weak resume in that situation would firmly have them outside of the playoff bracket.

While it is all based on hypotheticals, Texas is the team in the SEC everyone wants to see lose again.

Grade the Take: A based on the situation put before us, C based on it if is going to happen