The American Express expert picks 2025: PGA Tour golf predictions and analysis for PGA West

Hawaii is now in the rearview for the PGA Tour and we're heading to PGA West for The American Express this week in what's a loaded slate of golf. While Rory McIlroy and many of the LIV Golf stars, among others, are teeing it up in Dubai, we have a pretty stellar field for The American Express this week, even after the likes of Xander Schauffele withdrawing from the event.

Of course, The American Express is always a different beast. Rather than a 36-hole standard cut, it happens after 54 holes here due to a three-course rotation over the first three rounds before finishing at the Stadium Course, which also where one of the pre-cut rounds is played. But what makes that tricky is the Stadium Course has Shotlink data while the Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta don't, though both tend to play easier.

Having said that, event history will be important, as will the ability to score. Winners at The American Express tend to go low, so we need a dialed-in game who knows and plays this place well — though Nick Dunlap winning here as an amateur a year ago kind of blows that theory out of the water. We move on, though, after a couple outrights fell short at the Sony and try to get some nice hits this week.

With that, let's get into our golf picks for this week's The American Express with a winner prediction, Top 10 pick, One and Done selection and finally some sleepers we're keeping tabs on.

Golf betting record in 2025: 2-6-0, -2.0 Units (-3.0 Units at Sony) | One and Done Total for 2025: $2,160,000 (Daniel Berger at Sony, $0)

Note: All lines are courtesy of BetMGM. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

The American Express golf picks to Win, finish Top 10 and One and Done

Pick to win The American Express: Justin Thomas (+1200)

The course history for Justin Thomas at PGA West isn't extensive but it's undeniably impressive. He finished T3 here last year after not playing this event since 2015 — when he came in at T7. Now he comes in displaying some tremendous form, including ranking sixth in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds, finding a bit more mojo with the putter of late, and dialing it in with the second-most strokes gaine on Par 4s measuring 350-400 yards, which is going to be key at this event. At this open ballpark where he's had success already, I think we see the start of a big 2025 come through with a win for JT.

Top 10 pick for The American Express: Harry Hall (+350)

What's not to like about Harry Hall right now? In his last five starts, the Englishman has gone T9, T13, T14, T8 and T10. One of the big things for Hall over that span has been the improvement in his ball-striking. He's long been an elite putter who can score with the flat stick but he's added 0.776 strokes gained over his last 20 measured rounds tee-to-green. If that trend continues, he has the overall game to go low and contend. Plus, for an event that Jon Rahm once referred to as a "piece of s*** putting contest", why not take one of the best putters in golf who is hitting it better than he ever has before as well?

One and Done pick for The American Express: Harry Hall

Much like last week when we fell short of the cut line with Daniel Berger, I don't want to burn a huge name this week but I do love the upside of Hall. He's trending in all the right ways and should be able to take advantage of this venue while also not burning a huge name too early in the season in a non-signature event.

Sleepers to watch at PGA West for The American Express

Top 40 sleeper pick for The American Express (0.9 Units): Frankie Capan (+175)

We're taking a bit of a flier here on a Korn Ferry Tour graduate but one with a ton of game. He finished third on the KFT Points List last season to earn his PGA Tour card and began his 2025 season with a T45 at the Sony Open. But this is a guy who also finished T41 at the US Open last year and only had an outlier Round 3 to really hold him and who finished inside the Top 5 three times, including one win, in his final five KFT starts. He's worth a look given his ability and the nice odds for only a Top 4.

Sleeper pick to win The American Express (0.1 Units): Joe Highsmith (+10000)

Yes, Joe Highsmith missed the cut at the Sony last week. No, I don't really care. Highsmith was blistering hot at the end of the fall with three straight Top 16 finishes. His combination of length and accuracy off the tee and with giving himself birdie looks with one of the highest greens in regulation percentages in the field all make perfect sense for scoring low at The American Express. So at 100/1 odds, he's going to be a sleeper I take a little swing with.