The Houston Rockets finished as the No. 2 seed in the West this season despite a young, unproven roster that hasn't come close to realizing its potential. It's hard to ignore the looming specter of the Oklahoma City juggernaut these days, but Houston is built to be a force in the West for years to come.
Much has been said and written about the need to trade for an established star. Whether it's Giannis or Kevin Durant, there are innumerable logical pathways to improve this Rockets team in the short term and potentially compete for a championship.
While it's hard to deny the merits of trading for a star like Giannis — a two-time MVP and top-three player in the world — it's unclear if that option will actually become available to the Rockets. If the available pool of stars ends up being 36-year-old Kevin Durant and, I don't know, maybe Trae Young, then one might advise the Rockets front office to proceed with patience. Especially when it comes to a top prospect like Reed Sheppard.
Any blockbuster Houston trade probably starts with Sheppard, the reigning No. 3 pick and one of the NBA's great mystery boxes, but the Rockets should heed the warnings of history, as evidenced by the conference finals.
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Rockets shouldn't trade Reed Sheppard unless its an absolute slam-dunk superstar
NBA fans have a tendency to overvalue their own players — speaking from experience, I know plenty of Sixers fans who wouldn't part with Tyrese Maxey straight-up for Giannis — but there is a reason young, high-upside players are held in such high esteem around the league. It's never wise to gamble the future unless you are getting absolute max value in return.
Take, for example, the Dallas Mavericks, who dealt Jalen Brunson to New York to avoid paying him a bargain-bin contract in free agency. Or the Los Angeles Clippers, who coughed up plucky former lottery pick Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to acquire Paul George (this did help them land Kawhi Leonard, to be fair, but c'mon). What about the infamous Sacramento Kangz (stylized as "Kings"), who dealt Tyrese Haliburton for Domantas Sabonis in one of the most lopsided "win-win" trades of all time.
Houston is already the No. 2 seed with unmatched depth and ample room for internal growth. Sheppard barely saw the court as a rookie, but when he did, we saw tantalizing glimpses of what is to come. Fred VanVleet isn't long for Houston. Sheppard's knockdown shooting, high-feel playmaking, and scrappy defense figure to impact winning before long. He is also the perfect backcourt complement to Amen Thompson on paper.
If the Rockets deal Sheppard for a 36-year-old Kevin Durant, or even a less-proven but younger No. 1 option like Zion Williamson or Trae Young, there is tremendous risk baked in. Sheppard has a real chance to ascend the ladder to stardom before long. He's not an elite athlete, but the list of 20-year-olds with his blend of shooting touch, skill level and basketball IQ is awfully short. Sheppard was one of the few prospects from a weak draft with genuine outlier traits. He's small and not overly explosive, but he the production — on both ends of the floor — was undeniable at Kentucky.
The Rockets don't want to watch Reed Sheppard leading a small-market team to postseason glory five years down the road. Sheppard taking over for Trae Young and becoming the solution to Atlanta's stalled engine would suck — a lot. For Houston fans, at least.
Sometimes that great, up-and-coming supporting star develops into a franchise cornerstone. Sheppard has a chance to follow that arc in Houston. Unless it's a slam-dunk, home run trade for the Rockets, the former No. 3 pick should be off the table in forthcoming negotiations.