Water has found its level in the NFL, or at least when it comes to top-of-the-market quarterback money. It was not that long ago when Patrick Mahomes signed a ridiculous 10-year, $450 million contract to be the franchise quarterback of the Kansas City Chiefs for ... life. We're now entering year four of that deal, which first went into effect in 2022, a deal on which he's won two Super Bowls.
Over time, Mahomes has deferred more and more money to free up precious cap space to help sustain a winning tradition in Kansas City. Ahead of the 2025 NFL season, Mahomes is only a cap hit of a shade over $28 million. That has him 14th most in the league. (Even though Brock Purdy just signed a massive deal with the San Francisco 49ers, the contract does not go into effect until 2026.)
So when I came across this tweet from Brett Kollmann over on X, it had me thinking: We may have seen the Mahomes-era quarterback contract bubble burst.
Mahomes' contract reset NFL’s QB market — until now
Ever since Mahomes signed his deal with the Chiefs, the top of the quarterback market has been out of whack.
"Look at how much has changed in just a decade in how the QB market scales," wrote Kollman. "QB went from a 14-15% disparity, but was slowly creeping up. And then the Mahomes deal happened and it completely broke the whole market. The gap jumped up to the mid 20s, and it had been at minimum 21% every year since then. It was 24% again last year after Dak signed."
We have seen a big market correction this year though, Kollman suggests. We're back to about 15 percent again for the first time in a half decade, a sustainable level when comparing top-of-the-market quarterback salaries to that of No. 10 in the league. Ideally, that needs to be under 15 percent.
There are a lot of numbers to sift through here, but it is safe to say that Mahomes' deal is a bargain.
Rising QB depth has reshaped the top of the market
Mahomes was one of three quarterbacks taken in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft. While Deshaun Watson still got paid for some reason, Mitch Trubisky turned out to be a bust. Although much of the 2021 and 2022 NFL quarterback classes were largely misses, outside of Purdy being Mr. Irrelevant in 2022, the bulk of the guys who were drafted between Mahomes and Purdy have hit big.
Mahomes' once-groundbreaking contract no longer defines the top of the quarterback market because a large wave of young QBs have signed massive deals since.
We are looking at guys like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson a year later in 2018. Kyler Murray headlined a weak class in 2019, but the 2020 class featured a ton of hits. Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts all got paid. Even Trevor Lawrence, who not everyone is sold on just yet, struck gold a second time with his big team to headline the lackluster 2021 NFL Draft class. As more solid QBs emerged and signed healthy deals, the gap between the highest and 10th-highest salaries has narrowed.
To put it bluntly, we are talking about 10 to a dozen quarterbacks who have been paid more recently than Mahomes. Baker Mayfield has gotten paid. Jared Goff has gotten paid. Now that Purdy has been paid, I would argue the next guy up for debate has to be C.J. Stroud or even Bryce Young. They are entering their third years in the league. All I can say is more good quarterback play is a key result.
It's a reset that has created a healthier, more balanced QB market, where strong play across the board keeps contract inflation in check. When the upper middle closely approaches the top, you will end up having a far more robust market.