The newest Heat star has almost passed up Jimmy Butler in one regard

Tyler Herro may have become a first-time All-Star this year, but he's been a baller since day one. The self-belief always oozed through his timely jump shots. And this year, doubling down on improved shot selection has him in the midst of a career year and on the brink of passing Jimmy Butler in an all-time Heat category.

Before 2025, Herro's shot selection was midrange-heavy. In 2020, 22 percent of his shots were long 2s. That number has steadily fallen since, though, down to just 15 percent last season.

The midrange shot is chastised today due to the rise of analytics; it's better hoops to take a few steps back and fire a shot worth three. But when you're an elite midrange shooter like Kevin Durant (maybe the best ever), you can take whatever shot you want from wherever.

Herro wasn't quite at Durant's level, but he was elite in his own right. The issue is he's a much better 3-point shooter, but the volume didn't match his skill set.

He has set out to change that reality and shifted his approach to taking more 3s and layups. That mindset has Herro averaging a career-high in points per game, true shooting percentage and two-point percentage. His percentage of shots that are long 2s is down to just 8.

Getting to the basket obviously equals more foul calls, and this improvement in generating easier looks has Herro closing in on his former teammate.

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Tyler Herro will pass Butler in Heat lore before the seasons end

The 30 points per game mark is the pinnacle of a bucket-getter. Neither Herro nor Butler have approached this number for a full season, so they count how many times they've done it in a game. The Heat 30-point game count between those two stands at Butler 38, Herro 37.

With his improved shot distribution, Herro hascrossed the 30-point finish line 15 times and dashed through the 40-point line three times already this year. This All-Star season has been filled with losing (partly due to the Butler saga), but Herro has found himself as a player.

Leveraging his impressive 3-point range puts the defense in a bind. You have to respect that range and close out 30 feet from the basket, but he's done a tremendous job attacking said closeouts and getting all the way to the rim — cutting out those stop-and-pop 2s.

Herro will pass Butler soon and rank fourth in franchise history in 30-point games; only Glen Rice, LeBron James, and Dwyane Wade will have more. Rice is third with 67, and Herro can feasibly get there one day. The top two will be tougher to catch, but who knows with the trajectory Herro's now on.

The best role for 14 is still as an off-ball threat, moving off screens and being ready to attack. If the Heat finds a point guard who would allow Herro to play off the ball, he could set another new high in points per game next season.