The Michigan Wolverines roll into March Madness as Big Ten champs and the 5-seed in the South Region. It's a tough corner of the bracket, with Auburn, Michigan State, and Louisville among the teams standing in Michigan's way, but the Wolverines are a bonafide contender in every sense.
That said ... it's the NCAA Tournament. It's March. And every year around this time, a "bonafide contender" gets their door kicked in by an unassuming Cinderella with a chip on its shoulder. This is the season of upsets, and Michigan faces an especially strong test in the first round.
Their opponent is No. 12 seed UC San Diego. The Tritons are not exactly a household name, but it has been an impressive season for the Big West champs. UCSD has won its last 15 games, tied for the longest active winning streak in college basketball. Momentum is a huge factor in the tournament, and few teams possess more of it than UC San Diego.
It's fair to wonder if UCSD has the athleticism and size to match up with Michigan's super-sized, ultra-skilled frontcourt of Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin. There's a reason the Wolverines are seeded so much higher, after all. That said, more than the momentum inherent to winning 15 straight games, UCSD has an ace up its sleeve that could halt Michigan's tourney run much sooner than folks expect.
UC San Diego has one distinct advantage over Michigan in March Madness
Michigan lost three straight games to end the regular season before running through the Big Ten Tournament in a remarkable turnaround. This Wolverines team has experienced its share of ups and downs, but there was a point midway through the season when it felt like Michigan could go toe-to-toe with any team. That feeling has re-emerged over the past week and change.
So, why are so many folks scrambling to pick UCSD on their brackets? Well, it's simple. March Madness is all about matchups, and San Diego is a uniquely tough matchup for Wolverines. That is a two-way street — I wouldn't call Michigan a "good" matchup for UCSD — but the Tritons have a few tricks up their sleeve.
Perhaps the biggest weakness of this Michigan team is turnovers. The Wolverines ended the regular season with a 19.8 percent TO rate, per KenPom. That is the dead last in the Big Ten and the third-worst of all NCAA Tournament teams, ahead of only 14-seed Troy and 16-seed Mount St. Mary's. It ranks 328 out of 364 D-I teams.
UCSD, meanwhile, ranked second in all of college basketball in forcing turnovers, with a 23.3 percent TO rate on defense. The only team slotted higher is Abilene Christian, a school you've probably never heard of.
This San Diego squad gets after it on the defensive end, and is particularly pesky in passing lanes. For all the justified enthusiasm around the breakout season of Yale transfer Danny Wolf, he's averaging a costly 3.3 turnovers per game (1.1 AST-TO). The 7-foot point guard experiment is fun, and freeing up Wolf to spread and stress the defense at all three levels has made Michigan uniquely challenging to guard. It does leave them vulnerable to coughing up the rock, though, and UCSD threatens to take advantage of that in the Round of 64.
Games tend to slow down in March. It's often a battle of possessions, and if San Diego dominates in the possessions category (their 13.4 percent TO rate on offense ranks seventh in college hoops), there's a good chance Michigan is on the bus back to Ann Arbor a lot sooner than planned.
Michigan is still the heavy favorite going into this game, and rightfully so, but UC San Diego stands out as a particularly appealing upset pick for those looking to impress their friends with a bold prediction.