The Pick Before: How the Braves spectacularly missed out on Aaron Judge

Screwing up draft picks is a time-honored tradition in the game of baseball. For every Mike Trout, Ken Griffey Jr., or Clayton Kershaw who goes on to a Hall of Fame career, there are countless examples of top picks doing decidedly less than that. Evaluating prospects is a bit of a crapshoot, and it doesn't take much to end up being very, very wrong.

Any non-Padres fans out there remember the name Matt Bush? You shouldn’t. Bush was the No. 1 overall pick in 2004 and is now best known for his alcohol-fueled legal exploits that cost him his career and, for most of 2015, his freedom.

Bush’s case is an extreme example, of course. One needn’t be a habitual criminal to be a disappointment of a draft pick. Baseball is a cruel and extremely difficult game to get to the highest level of; injuries can derail a career very easily, and sometimes a guy just can’t take the necessary steps in player development to reach their potential. These things just happen and it is often impossible to predict.

However, there are few worse feelings for fans to see a prospect struggle while the player picked immediately after them turns into an absolute stud. Atlanta Braves fans know this pain well, as the team selected pitcher Jason Hursh the pick before Aaron Judge came off the board back in 2013.

While the Yankees ended up with Aaron Judge, the Braves only ended up with regret

It is completely fair to call this a hindsight take. Prospects’ stocks go up and down all the time. 24 picks came and went before Trout got selected in the 2009 draft. Hell, Don Mattingly didn’t get picked until the 19th round and Mike Piazza lasted until there were only five picks left in the 1988 draft. Everyone is guessing here and more often than not, there are going to be surprises.

In Hursh’s case, however, the Braves probably should have seen trouble brewing beforehand. Considered by draft rankings at the time to be more of a sandwich pick-level talent, Hursh had a quality mid-90s fastball and was an experienced college arm, but his secondary pitches were lagging behind at the time and his upside appeared limited. Still, Atlanta took the chance anyways and picked him at No. 31 overall.

Judge was anything but a sure thing in those days. Yes, he was a giant man with insane raw power at Fresno State, but the list of guys with his sort of frame that have actually hit consistently in MLB is a short one. A player can have all the power in the world, but they have to make enough contact for that to matter. (Just ask Texas Rangers/New York Yankees legend Joey Gallo.) Judge's size also came with some defensive questions, as some wondered how well that particular skill would age and if he would eventually have to move to first base or DH.

Obviously we know the rest of the story, at least when it comes to Judge. He powered his way through the Minor Leagues, won AL Rookie of the Year as well as a pair of MVPs, and is now the proud owner of a massive contract with the Yankees and the honor of being considered one of the most feared hitters in baseball. Look away, Braves fans. Look away.

As for Hursh, he would eventually make it to the big leagues in 2016, making a total of 11 appearances out of the bullpen with an 8.25 ERA for his troubles over the next two years. He would hang around in the Braves' farm system for a couple more years after that before throwing his last pitch in Double-A in 2019. A cursory look online shows that he is now doing medical equipment sales and hopefully he is enjoying his life after baseball. Again, not living up to one's draft status isn't a crime and baseball is very, very hard. He has a lot to be proud of just by getting to the big leagues at all.

Still, just imagine what things could have looked like if Judge had ended up with the Braves instead of New York. Unless you are a Yankees or Braves fan. If you are, definitely don't do that if you value your sanity.