THE PLAYERS Championship is one of the best weeks in golf, on the PGA Tour and just generally if you love this sport. So we have to celebrate the fact that we're heading back to TPC Sawgrass this week. Scottie Scheffler enters this week as the favorite, which stands to reason given that he's the back-to-back champion at this place with the biggest purse on Tour.
What's most fun about THE PLAYERS Championship beyond the loaded, deep field, though, is the fact that it's the most volatile course on the PGA Tour. Yes, playing well here is a good sign but it doesn't guarantee future performance. The same is true of players with bad history here, which Scheffler was before breaking through to win. It's all over the place, so you have to look at your handicapping with what you believe in. For me, that's good driving and ball-striking that can attack on approach. That may be more true with a course that could be a bit soft and vulnerable on attack.
For a big week like this, though, we're expanding the betting card. We'll have a couple of outright winner picks in addition to a Top 10 pick before adding an additional sleeper to the mix as well. Got it? Then let's dive into our THE PLAYERS Championship predictions and PGA Tour expert picks for the week.
Golf betting record in 2025: 6-33-0, -15.565 Units (-0.39 Units at API) | One and Done Total for 2025: $3,370,538 (Patrick Cantlay at API, $126,000)
Note: All lines are courtesy of BetMGM. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
THE PLAYERS Championship golf picks to Win, finish Top 10 and One and Done
Pick to win THE PLAYERS Championship: Collin Morikawa (+1400, FanDuel)
Get last week's heartbreak out of your mind. Collin Morikawa is back to his winning ways, ranking sixth in weighted SG: Approach over the last 20 rounds, third in Par 5 scoring, second in Birdie or Better Gained Percentage, 12th in Good Drive Percentage and has a T13 here from 2023 when he gained a ridiculous 9.35 strokes on approach. His accurate driver combined with overall ball striking should make him a perennial threat at TPC Sawgrass, so we're taking him to get over the hump after a pair of runner-up finishes in signature events already this season.
Pick to win THE PLAYERS Championship (0.5 Units): Daniel Berger (+6500, FanDuel)
First things first, you have to love what Daniel Berger has done at THE PLAYERS Championship with a T9 and T13 finish in his last two starts in 2021 and 2022. Furthermore, he's playing perfect golf to make good on that, finishing Top 25 in his last four starts, gaining 0.8 strokes on approach over his last 20 rounds, ranking Top 20 in SG: Around-the-Green and leading this field in Good Drive Percentage over that same span as well. He's primed for a bounce-back victory some time this year, and Sawgrass is a great fit to do it. And hey, if Brian Kirschner also likes him this week as well on the SI Golf Betting panel, who am I to not stay with him on that?
Top 10 pick for THE PLAYERS Championship: Justin Thomas (+250)
Justin Thomas is about to run away with the title of being the golfer that I lose the most on this PGA Tour season. But the signs are there for him to have a monster year. He's third in weighted SG: Approach over the last 20 rounds, one of the best short course players on Tour and can get white hot with his scoring, which you need to contend at THE PLAYERS. His putter worries me too much to have him outright but I still think he can reel off a Top 10 as a past champion who knows how to win here.
One and Done pick for THE PLAYERS Championship: Scottie Scheffler
Maybe this is foolish, but if we're looking at the biggest purse of the year, then I'm going to take the No. 1-ranked golfer in the world who also happens to be the back-to-back champion at THE PLAYERS Championship. Scheffler has looked somewhat mortal since returning from his hand injury — of course, for him, that means going T9, T25, T3, T11, which most pros would take over any stretch. I can feel confident going with Scottie to put together a nice week.
Sleepers to watch at THE PLAYERS Championship
Top 20 sleeper pick for THE PLAYERS Championship: Doug Ghim (+350)
You might be surprised to learn that Doug Ghim leads THE PLAYERS Championship field in weighted SG: Approach over the last 20 rounds, but here we are. What I really like paired with that is that Ghim also comes in at sixth in Good Drive Percentage over that span as well, which pairs well with the approach play. The putter has been worrisome but he gained 3.06 strokes at TPC Sawgrass last year en route to a T16 finish while also finishing T6 in 2022. It's shaping up nicely for him to put together another nice week for a big payday.
Top 40 sleeper pick for THE PLAYERS Championship (0.9 Units): Andrew Putnam (+200)
Considering that Andrew Putnam has four missed cuts in five starts at TPC Sawgrass in addition to no finish inside the Top 50, you might be worried. I'm never all too concerned with course history, specifically as something negative, though. What I do know is that Putnam has been a little hot of late, including a T11 at the Cognizant Classic and gaining strokes on approach in five of six starts in the 2025 season and gaining with the putter in five of six as well. For just a Top 40, that's an easy little sprinkle for me to take.
Sleeper to win THE PLAYERS Championship (0.1 Units): Denny McCarthy (+9000, FanDuel)
We know that Denny McCarthy might be outright the best putter on the PGA Tour, but I always look for his ball-striking to start popping right to match that up. He's currently 25th in weighted SG: Approach over his last 20 rounds while being third in putting on Bermuda. He's performed well in the last two signature events with a T5 at Genesis and solo 18th last week at API. With a T35 and T13 in his last two starts at THE PLAYERS, he's one to watch this week.