The Sentry expert picks 2025: PGA Tour golf predictions and analysis for Kapalua

We are back! Let's be honest, there are few things I love more in this world than the PGA Tour and the game of golf. But as football season gets going in both the college and pro ranks, my time here has to be shifted heavily to coverage in those areas. Now that the calendar has flipped to 2025, though, and we're heading to always-beautiful Kapalua for The Sentry, we're back with our golf picks and predictions.

Things are going to look a bit differently than in year's past, though, especially after a great 2023 season on the PGA Tour saw us give all of our profits back with a dismal 2024 effort. So rather than giving out full cards of best bets and the like, we're going to tidy up our PGA Tour expert picks quite a bit. We'll be giving out a winner pick, a Top 10 pick, the always popular One and Done pick and then a couple of sleepers to sprinkle on for the week.

So that leads us to The Sentry. it's a limited field with only 60 players teeing it up at Kapalua, but this is a venue where we have a ton of course history and that can put almost any golfer in play with how low scores tend to go. With that, let's dive into our The Sentry predictions for this week in PGA Tour golf as we start with a clean slate.

Golf betting record in 2025: 0-0-0, 0.0 Units | One and Done Total for 2025: $0

Note: All lines are courtesy of BetMGM. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

The Sentry golf picks to Win, finish Top 10 and One and Done

Pick to win The Sentry: Collin Morikawa (+1100)

Hitching my wagon to Collin Morikawa didn't work out for me all too often last year, if it ever really did at all. But I can't quit the approach wizard, especially with how dominant he's been when it comes to Kapalua. In his last four trips here, he's finished T5, runner-up, T5 and T7. The course that puts a premium on approach suits him, especially with distance off the tee not being a qualifier to still put the ball deep down the fairway. Combine that with Morikawa showing his ability to score by ranking third in Birdie or Better Gained Percentage over the last 50 rounds in the field, I think he gets the trophy this week.

Top 10 pick for The Sentry: Sungjae Im (+150)

The course history for Sungjae Im may not be what it is with Morikawa but it's still more than enough to have my attention with a T5 last year and four straight Top 15 finishes, including another T5 in 2021. Perhaps more importantly, though, Sungjae got his groove back near the end of last year and in the fall swing along with the Hero, finishing T11 at the BMW, seventh at the TOUR Championship, T13 at the ZOZO and T9 at the Hero. His combination of approach play and around-the-green prowess should put him on the first page of the leaderboard.

One and Done pick for The Sentry: Collin Morikawa

For every reason listed above when it comes to Morikawa and the fact that this is a $20 million purse for the Signature Event, we're riding with him to start the One and Done season. Even if he doesn't get the win, it feels like a sure bet based on his history at Kapalua that he can come out and get it done with a high finish once again.

Sleepers to watch at Kapalua to watch for The Sentry

Top 20 sleeper pick for The Sentry (0.4 Units): Harry Hall (+150)

Taking a little bit of a Top 20 swing that stinks a little bit with a condensed field because, well, there aren't many longshot Top 20 options. I do like Harry Hall quite a bit in this spot though. Because of an elite short game that puts him Top 10 in this field in putting on Bermuda and Top 25 in around-the-green play, he can score in bunches. While I don't think he has the elite ball striking to win, he's positive on approach and a long-enough driver to get in scoring spots and take advantage to finish on the top-third of the leaderboard.

Sleeper pick to win The Sentry (0.1 Units): Eric Cole (+6600)

Eric Cole just jumps off the page to me at Kapalua, especially after a solid T14 in his debut at this venue last year. But his fit is undeniable. He ranks 11th in weighted SG: Approach, fifth in weighted SG: Around-the-Green, seventh in SG: Putting on Bermuda and seventh in Birdie or Better Gained Percentage over the last 50 rounds. That's enough for me to say he checks the boxes and can make a run at The Sentry this week to start the 2025 season.