The NBA Playoffs begin in 26 days. Here’s a look at the big questions for the last playoff push.
1. Are the Cavaliers falling apart at the worst time?
The Cavs ended their losing streak with a breeze win over the Jazz Sunday, but the four-game slide on their West Coast road trip did rattle a few of the Cleveland Faithful. This has been such a blessed season for Cleveland, where everything has gone right, that it’s normal to wonder if maybe the tide had turned towards stormy skies.
I tend to think this was just the normal March nonsense for teams that have nothing to play for (as the Cavs have a magic number of seven for homecourt), but there’s at least some reason to wonder if the Cavs’ run at the top took something out of them.
2. Can anyone really stop the Celtics’ math attack?
Boston isn’t the 1-seed and aren’t setting records or putting themselves among legendary company like last year, but they’re also very well-positioned to repeat as champs. Can any team find a way to keep their three-pointers from being hoisted up at a rate that buries their opponent trying to keep up?
No one’s scared of Jayson Tatum. Maybe they should be; Tatum has more playoff wins since his rookie season than any other player. But teams should be afraid of Boston’s nearly cult-like dedication to getting up more 3s than the other team, and using that to create a cushion teams can’t overcome.
3. Is OKC really as good as the numbers?
The Thunder are on pace for the best point differential in NBA history, the best SRS (point differential against strength of schedule) in NBA history (where each of the five teams after them won the title), one of the best defenses, era-adjusted, in NBA history, and the fifth-most wins in NBA history.
Is this team really that good at this age? It really needs to be stressed: if you take the age and names off the jerseys, this Thunder team losing at any point in the playoffs would have to be considered a historic upset. They are simply, by every line on their resume, better than everyone else.
instead of finding fault or reasons why they’ll get exposed, what if this really is the start of a new dynasty? What if the Thunder are just that good?
4. Who gets the West No. 2 seed?
Houston fell all the way to fifth, then rattled off nine in a row before losing to Denver Sunday. Memphis surged to second and now is in free fall, all the way at five. The Lakers have the record and stats since The Trade to suggest they might be the best team of all the squads in their group, but how real is it? And is Denver going to stop anyone?
At stake in this quadrant is avoiding OKC until the conference finals. If they wind up tied, division winner is going to go a long way here. Division winner gets first tiebreaker on any multi-team ties.
The Rockets own tiebreaker over the Grizzlies, so they would advance. The Lakers would advance as division winner. Houston and LA play twice more to determine tiebreaker between the two.
The No. 2 seed seems likely to face the loser of the Wolves and Warriors’ battle for sixth, while the 3-seed gets the winner. In that case, is it actually better to fall to the fourth seed and play the reeling Grizzlies, even if you face OKC in the second round? That’s assuming Memphis can stop their skid and hold onto the five?
5. Who’s the most dangerous West sleeper?
The Warriors have only lost three times with Jimmy Butler. The Wolves have a top-10 offense and defense. The Clippers are an elite team with Kawhi Leonard on the floor.
All three look like potential dark horses that could make an unlikely run to the conference finals or beyond. Choose your fighter: the veteran Warriors, the proven Wolves, or the enigmatic Clippers?
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NBA news and notes:
- The Pacers continued their absolutely bonkers week Saturday with an overtime win over the Nets. Indiana has had wild comebacks and insane swings vs. the Wolves, Mavericks, and Nets in the last week. They’ve shown that they might not take care of business in regulation when they should, but they’re also never out of it.
- The Lakers’ post-trade run finally hit a wall Saturday as the Chicago Bulls led by Josh Giddey pulled off the upset. Giddey finished with a triple-double with eight steals, two swipes shy of a quadruple-double double, as the Lakers lost with LeBron James back and with their full complement of rotation players.
- The Heat snapped a nine-game losing streak Sunday with a win over the Hornets. Just in time, too. Jimmy Butler visits his former home on Tuesday with the Warriors.
3 under-the-radar Most Improved Player Candidates won't win
Christian Braun: Braun was given the starting job this season and has been one of Denver’s most consistent and impactful players. Braun is second in fastbreak points per game this season behind Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Ochai Agbaji: Agbaji has given the Raptors good minutes, shooting 39 percent from 3-point range and developing as a defender with a 70th-percentile defensive EPM.
Santi Aldama: Aldama has a real case for Sixth-man of the year and his versatility is a huge reason Memphis survived all their injury problems this season. His ability to create, finish and pass has been huge for Memphis.