We are less than two months away from the 2025 MLB Draft. While we are starting to see a bit of a hierarchy emerge when it comes to draft prospects, the coming weeks are going to determine a lot as teams finalize their boards and figure out exactly how much it is going to take to sign guys. Talent does matter, especially with early picks, but managing draft bonus pools is almost as important as saving money for picks later in the draft that could yield a better class overall.
As a result, a lot is up in the air right now. Anyone that tells you that they know exactly how the first round is going to go is lying, and the various mock drafts out there are understandably all over the place. However, there are a few early storylines surrounding the 2025 MLB Draft that are rising out of the chaos and could define exactly how the early portions of the draft go.
For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB season.
All eyes are on the Nationals at No. 1 overall
Normally, we have a pretty good idea as to who will get picked first overall, with the group of potential candidates rarely covering more than two or three draft prospects. However, 2025 seems to be wide open at No. 1 overall, with a number of candidates including high school prospects shortstop Ethan Holliday, shortstop Eli Willits and RHP Seth Hernandez as well as college picks such as shortstop Aiva Arquette and left-hander Jamie Arnold.
With so little separation at the top of the draft, there is a lot of wisdom in Washington coming up with a group of players they like enough to pick there and then figuring out who would take the least amount of money. The Nationals have a $16,656,400 bonus pool this year, and if they can save enough money with their first pick, they could go with an overslot offer to another first-round pick they like and float them to their next pick.
Liam Doyle could go almost anywhere in the first round
Teams can pretend all they want to, but the reality is that when draft day comes, most teams prefer to retreat to the safety of college picks — with pitchers being in particularly high demand. Not only are college players a less risky demographic overall, but they also generally move through the Minor Leagues quicker which especially matters for teams in the middle of their competitive windows.
However, Tennessee lefty Liam Doyle may be the biggest wild card in the draft this year. His supporters point to his high-octane fastball being arguably the best pitch in the draft and his gaudy strikeout numbers in a very tough college conference. His detractors point to his high-effort delivery, his secondary pitches lagging behind and the real reliever risk in his profile. He probably won't fall out of the top 10, but he could go as high as No. 1 or fall into the teens or lower depending on how teams evaluate him and how the rest of this spring goes.
The depth of this class could lead to some deal-cutting and weird picks at the end of the first round
If you ask scouts across the league right now, they will tell you that there is very little that separates the draft prospects this year from No. 20 to around No. 50. There are a number of demographics that will have plenty of availability in the back half of the first round, which is going to make accurate scouting reports as well as personal preference matter a great deal.
A lot of teams will just take the best player available on their boards and call it a day. However, there are several teams in the back half of the first round that have additional picks this year, which could lead to some of them trying to cut deals with their first pick to try and land two first-round talents in a single draft class with an overslot pick (or two) later in the draft. In short, don't read too much into the mock drafts you are seeing right now, especially in the latter third of the first round. Those names are going to change around a lot, and money may end up being the determining factor there.