There are plenty of places to lay blame amid a frustrating 8-7 start for the New York Yankees this season, but it's safe to say that lefty Carlos Rodon is at the top of most fans' lists.
He underachieved over the first two years of the six-year, $165 million deal he signed in December of 2022, so much so that GM Brian Cashman felt compelled to shell out even more money to sign Max Fried as New York's new No. 2 starter behind Gerrit Cole. Of course, Cole would be lost for the year due to Tommy John surgery just three months later, thrusting Rodon back into the spotlight as a crucial piece of the Yankees' suddenly injury-ravaged rotation.
But rather than rise to the occasion, Rodon is floundering once again. The latest clunker came on Sunday, when two home runs from Jung Hoo Lee turned an early 3-0 lead into a frustrating 5-4 loss to the San Francisco Giants. It was the entire Carlos Rodon Experience in microcosm: Flashes of brilliance — the lefty struck out eight over his 5.2 innings of work — undone by crippling mistakes in the biggest moments.
At this point, it's hard to blame Yankees fans for wanting to wipe their hands of Rodon entirely. He certainly hasn't been worth what the team's paying him so far, with a 5.48 ERA so far this season raising his mark in pinstripes to an ugly 4.80. Plus, that bloated contract has prevented New York from potentially closing the deal on other big-time players over the last couple of offseasons.
But the reality is that the decision to sign Rodon is a sunk cost, and New York needs him to get where they want to go this season and beyond. And while he hasn't shown it thus far, there are plenty of signs that he's about to start pitching up to his price tag soon.
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3 reasons why Yankees fans should believe in a Carlos Rodon bounce-back
His strikeout rate is elite
The most important building-block for any starting pitcher is to miss bats; if the ball doesn't get put into play, only good things can happen. And Rodon is missing bats with the best of them right now, despite his slow start: His 31.2% whiff rate ranks in the 80th percentile across the league, and his 10.96 K/9 is easily his highest as a Yankee to date.
Rodon's stuff clearly isn't suffering, even if the results haven't been there yet. Batter-to-batter, he's looked more like the ace the Yankees thought they were acquiring than he has at any other time during his tenure in New York. The problem has been an inability to avoid the big mistake, and there's reason to believe that might regress back to the mean.
His home-run rate and strand rate are bound to come down
History tells us that the percentage of fly balls allowed that turn into home runs and the percentage of runners that a pitcher strands on base are both largely based on luck, and will level out over longer periods of time. Granted, as a fly-ball pitcher prone to missing over the heart of the plate at times, Rodon's home-run rate has always been on the higher end. But even still, his current HR/FB rate of 22.7% is astronomical; for context, that number has been at 15.2% and 13.4% over the last two seasons.
He's also run into some bad luck when it comes to what happens with men on base. Again, whether a runner is on or in scoring position when a pitcher allows a hit is largely a matter of chance. Which is why Rodon's strand rate of 57.9% is so alarming: The league average is generally around 75%, meaning that, with some better sequencing luck, he should see his ERA come down.
His expected stats tell a far different story
As you might expect given all of the above, advanced stats are a bit rosier about how Rodon has pitched so far and how he'll continue to pitch in the future. His expected ERA, for example, is 3.71, nearly two full runs below his actual mark and far more in line with the No. 2/3 starter the Yankees expect him to be.
Of course, none of the hypotheticals matter unless fans start seeing actual results on the field. But while Rodon may never be the ace who was promised — his command too spotty, his home-run problem a bad fit for Yankee Stadium — he has the sort of arsenal that suggests he should be a solidly above-average arm moving forward. That's something New York could really use right now.