On Saturday, the Baltimore Orioles became the third MLB team to fire their manager this season. Brandon Hyde was let go after a 15-28 start, which puts Baltimore dead last in the AL East and a full 10.5 games behind the first place Yankees.
It has not felt this bleak in years. New ownership was supposed to usher in an era of contention. Instead, Baltimore has stalled completely, and it feels like this descent all traces back to a single decision: to not pay Corbin Burnes.
There are complicating factors of course, as Burnes ostensibly took a discount to go "home" to the Arizona Diamondbacks on a six-year, $210 million contract. It's not like the O's made zero effort to retain him either. Baltimore reportedly offered a deal in the range of four years and $180 million, which is a significant bump in annual salary, but less overall and with fewer years guaranteed.
That said, if Baltimore knew Burnes was attainable for a lesser annual value but more years, re-signing him should have been a no-brainer. This team was in the playoffs last season, with Burnes serving as the long-missing ace atop its rotation. Letting him walk has put Baltimore at a crossroads.
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Orioles probably regret letting Corbin Burnes walk after firing Brandon Hyde
Burnes looks predictably dominant for the D'Backs. Through eight starts, he boasts a 2.56 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, logging 43 strikeouts in 45.2 innings. He has been especially effective over his last four starts, including a season-high 10 strikeouts in Friday's win over the Colorado Rockies.
Has it been perfect? Not really. There are some troubling signs of age, which is probably why Baltimore did not want to commit to six-plus years — not to mention the general stinginess of the Mike Elias front office. Burnes' signature cutter lost some of its oomph last season and his swing-and-miss stuff is way down this season. He's in the 55th percentile for whiff rate in 2025, compared to the 74th percentile in 2024.
Still, few aces have been more durable and consistent over the last decade than Burnes, who has five straight top-10 finishes in Cy Young voting under his belt. The Diamondbacks look like real contenders in the National League. The O's are floundering in the same competitive stratosphere as the Rockies, Pirates and White Sox — bad company to keep. The main reason for Baltimore's slide has been a completely untenable rotation.
Charlie Morton was more or less the marquee free agent signing meant to paper over Burnes' departure, which has aged poorly. And predictably. Morton's fall-off has been steeper than anyone could have predicted, but the man is 41 years old. It was going to happen eventually. Tomoyuki Sugano, Baltimore's other signature addition, has fared much better, but he's hardly the headlining ace that Burnes is.
Baltimore canning Hyde is not a surprise, and it's probably the only move with a realistic chance to alter the on-field product. But, it also distracts from the real problem, which is a gutless front office and an ownership group that does not appear as committed to fielding a contender as initially expected.
The O's are still well-stocked with upcoming talent from the MLB roster down through the farm system, but until this organization behaves like a real winner, it's hard to have any faith in the O's to get over the hump in a competitive division.