Three-win Dolphins are more alive in the AFC playoff race than you think

The Miami Dolphins entered the season with high expectations, but their campaign was derailed when quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffered a career-threatening concussion against the Buffalo Bills in Week 2. The team had struggled mightily without Tagovailoa at the helm: Miami lost three of four games, failing to score more than 15 points in any of them as the offense shuffled through backup quarterbacks Tyler Huntley, Skylar Thompson and Tim Boyle.

Tagovailoa cleared concussion protocol heading into a home game against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 8, and his return immediately brought Mike McDaniel's offense back to life. The Dolphins scored a season-high 27 points, but the game unraveled when Tagovailoa mishandled a snap in the third quarter. That proved to be the turning point in an eventual 28-27 loss.

Despite the initial setback, the Dolphins clearly haven’t given up hope on their season. And after outlasting the Los Angeles Rams for a 23-15 victory on Monday Night Football, it's clear that Tagovailoa's return gives this team a path to the playoffs in the wide-open AFC Wild Card race.

Dolphins schedule provides them with a glimmer of hope

Despite holding a 3-6 record, Miami’s playoff hopes aren’t dead just yet. Granted, it’s a tough road ahead: The Dolphins have a 10 percent playoff probability after their Week 10 victory, per NFL Next Gen Stats. They rank No. 10 in the conference and sit two games behind the Denver Broncos (5-5) for the third and final Wild Card spot.

But Miami has the third-easiest schedule through the remainder of the 2024 regular season. Their eight remaining games are against teams that have a combined 30-46 record (.395 win percentage). Five of those games are against teams that currently have three or fewer wins. If Miami can just take care of business there, they’d improve to an 8-6 record. 

Eight wins wouldn’t be enough to earn the Dolphins a Wild Card spot with how the AFC playoff picture is shaping up right now, so they would also have to win at least one of their three games against teams with a winning record: the Green Bay Packers (6-3), San Francisco 49ers (5-4) and Houston Texans (6-4). All three of those opponents have shown to be fallible, particularly the Packers and Texans.

Three of the four AFC divisions have a clear first-place team: the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West, the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East and the Texans in the AFC South. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens will battle for the AFC North crown, with the losing team likely to take the top Wild Card spot. That leaves two playoff seeds yet to be determined.

The Dolphins aren’t a perfect team, and even the best teams struggle to consistently win every game against teams that should be easy to beat. To make matters worse, three of Miami’s games are against divisional rivals. Those games are never easy to win regardless of their opponent’s record. There’s also a downside that comes along with the easy schedule. Since the Dolphins will not play a team that’s directly ahead of them in the standings, they will not be in control of their own fate.

For now, all Miami can do is focus on their next opponent, one game at a time. The Dolphins will face the highly motivated Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium in Week 11.