If the Detroit Tigers have been the feel-good team of this season so far — seven wins in their last 10 games, a 22-13 record that is not only tops in the AL Central but tops in the American League overall — then Javier Baez is the feel-good player.
It brings us no pleasure to rain on that parade. The way Baez has turned things around in Detroit when literally no one thought he could has been an inspiration; very few players would be able to jump into center field on the fly like he has over the last couple weeks, and he seems like a valuable leader in a young Tigers clubhouse. He could've very easily packed it in after a miserable three yearss, and he deserves all the credit for not doing so.
Unfortunately, Tigers fans should probably enjoy this Linsanity run while it lasts. Because while Baez seems like a whole new player right now, the reality is that, on offense at least, he looks a whole lot like the guy they wanted run out of town just a few weeks ago.
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Javier Baez's dream start might not last much longer
On the surface, Baez's offensive turnaround is almost as remarkable as what he's done on defense. After posting a .610 OPS across his first three years in Detroit, he enters Monday with an .829 OPS this season, sacrificing some power for significant contact gains.
Under the hood, though, has anything really changed? Baez's K rate is about the same, and his walk rate is as minuscule as ever. He still hits the ball on the ground a ton, and he's making weaker contact this season than he has in years past. The one thing that's different this time around is, well, luck: Baez's batting average on balls in play is a sky-high .382, well above the league average of around .300. Simply put, Baez's is making lots of subpar contact, and it just happens to be finding holes right now where it didn't in the past. His expected metrics paint a similar picture: Per Statcast, Baez's expected slugging percentage (.383) and batting average (.243) are significantly below his actual marks (.479 and .309, respectively).
None of which means that Tigers fans can't enjoy this run; whether he's a changed player or not, the way that Baez has embraced his new role and given his all to Detroit is something that everyone who likes baseball should be able to get behind. And to be clear, there's still value to be had with a player who can handle both center field and shortstop while at least doing occasional damage at the plate.
The other shoe is going to drop eventually, though. Fundamentally, Baez is the same player he's always been, expectations should be adjusted accordingly.