The 2024 NFL MVP sweepstakes came down to the wire. Lamar Jackson appeared to be in the driver's seat for his second straight MVP award and his third overall, but a last-second push from Josh Allen flipped the race on its head.
We generally know the favorites going into next season. Jackson and Allen are just about locked in pole position(s), with Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow always in the mix as well. Washington breakout Jayden Daniels rounds out the top five according to oddsmakers, all with +750 odds or better, per Fox Sports.
But no awards race ever plays out exactly like we expect. There is always a surprise contender — a sleeper who sneaks up and leaves his impression on the awards trail. This season, these quarterbacks feel like real candidates to shake up the MVP discourse.
3. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Jared Goff finished fifth in MVP voting last season, receiving 30 votes (six third place, five fourth place, 19 fifth place). He's currently 14th in Las Vegas with +3000 odds to win the award next season. That feels like a steep drop-off for such a talented quarterback in the middle of his prime, especially when the Detroit Lions harbor arguably the best offense in football.
There is a noticeable absence in the Lions clubhouse this season — Ben Johnson is calling plays in Chicago now — but even so, this Detroit offense is brimming with explosive playmakers. Johnson's replacement, John Morton, takes over the Lions OC job after two years as the passing game coordinator in Denver, where he worked hand-in-hand with a noted QB whiseperer in Sean Payton.
Detroit's offense will look different, but with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs still on the roster, this team shouldn't struggle to put up points. Goff has really come into his own with the Lions, throwing for 4,629 yards and 37 touchdowns last season. Those are MVP numbers in some years.
If the Lions offense can maintain something even approximating its potency under Johnson, Goff will finish a heck of a lot higher than 14th when the final votes are cast.
2. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams was mostly bad as a rookie — at least by the standards of a No. 1 pick hailed as a generational talent. He's in a much different situation now, however, with Ben Johnson calling the shots, an improved offensive line, and more than enough receiving talent to sustain an explosive offense.
The Chicago Bears' long history of mediocre QBs seems to be working against Williams, but he's still a major talent, equipped with a combination of arm talent and mobility that tends to lead to explosive statistical performances. Both Jackson and Allen, who have been trading blows atop the MVP race for years, are dual-threat quarterbacks who create big plays just as often with their legs as with their arms. Williams can follow in those footsteps. Literally.
It would take a sizable sophomore leap from the 23-year-old, but he's capable of it. This feels like the make for break season for Williams and the Bears. That is a bit extreme for his second go-around, but with all Chicago has gone through, they need this Johnson hire to work and they really need the Williams pick to pay dividends.
With the 12th-best MVP odds at +2800, Williams is a smart bet for those with a big immagination and a bold streak.
1. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud was one of the best rookie quarterbacks in recent memory. The Ohio State product plateaued a bit in his second season, but the Houston Texans fired Bobby Slowik and installed a new OC in Nick Caley, who hails from the perpetually fruitful Sean McVay coaching tree. Getting Stroud some of that McVay née Shanahan magic could work wonders.
Houston has a megawatt of talent in the WR room, even after Stefon Diggs' departure. Stroud has major chemistry with Nico Collins and Tank Dell, while rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel figure to produce immediately. As far as WR3s go, Christian Kirk ain't bad. The Texans are due for a bounce back.
Stroud still won 10 games and threw for 3,727 yards last season, notching 20 touchdowns. He needs to cut down on interceptions, which has long been his biggest bugaboo, but Stroud's arm talent and athleticism pops on tape. At 23, he's at the very beginning of a promising career, and a new, QB-friendly offense could be exactly what it takes to launch him to the next level of QB stardom.
If Houston cruises through the AFC South and Stroud recaptures some of that rookie season magic, a top-five finish in MVP voting — heck, even a run at No. 1 — is not out of the question. His current odds (+2500) feel destined to age poorly.