Top prospect's resurgence could solve Phillies' Andrew Painter problem

The Philadelphia Phillies are determined to test a theory: You can never have too much of a good thing.

There is not a better pitching staff in baseball right now. Yeah, the bullpen needs some work, but Philadelphia's starting rotation is aces upon aces. Four of their five regular starters have an All-Star under their belt; three made it to the All-Star Game last season. The only exception is Jesús Luzardo, who is on that track in 2025 — and could even end up in the Cy Young conversation if his current form holds.

All this excludes Taijuan Walker, who magically has a 2.54 ERA across his first six starts of the campaign. After a disastrous stint in 2024, Walker committed to a rigorous offseason program and figured his stuff out. Now, he moves to the bullpen in what could, against all odds, be a transition that positively impacts Philadelphia's relief crew.

The Phillies really, truly have six quality starters on the MLB roster right now. That alone complicates things for Andrew Painter, the team's top pitching prospects and one of the best arms in the Minors, as he works back from Tommy John surgery and toward big-league reps. Now, there's another factor getting in Painter's way — the sudden, sharp ascent of fellow top prospect Mick Abel.

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Mick Abel could temporarily derail Andrew Painter's path to Phillies

Painter remains the No. 1 prospect in Philadelphia's pipeline, but he missed the entire 2024 campaign due to Tommy John surgery. As a result, he only recently resumed his a long, steady climb through the Phillies' Minor League ystem. He's currently with Low-A Clearwater.

Dave Dombrowski has said he plans for Painter to debut with the MLB roster sometime around July. Painter is one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, and the most exciting Phillies ace-to-be since Cole Hamels; fans immediately started envisioning the young righty emerging just in time for a postseason push.

And yet, it's hard to envision the Phillies demoting any of their current starters in favor of the 22-year-old Painter. He profiles as a perfectly exciting injury replacement, but Philadelphia had a chance to run a six-man rotation upon Ranger Suárez's return and balked. Will Rob Thomson really go six-deep with Painter?

And now, there's this Mick Abel thing. Abel struggled immensely last season, posting a 6.46 ERA and 1.81 WHIP across 24 starts for Triple-A Lehigh Valley. He's still very young at 23 years old, but there was real skepticism about his place in the hierarchy of Phillies prospects.

Lo and behold, Abel has figured something out in 2025. He's pitching lights out this season, posting a far more impressive 2.75 ERA and 1.28 WHIP through seven starts at the Triple-A level. Whereas Painter is still at the bottom rung of Philadelphia's pipeline to begin his rehab, Abel has a few years of Triple-A baseball under his belt — and he's throwing electric stuff right now.

Dombrowski recently said he "wouldn't hesitate" to bring Abel to the big leagues if the Phillies need a starter.

This is great news for the Phillies, who appear to have two electric arms coming through the Minors with imminent MLB potential. Is is too much of a good thing? No, not really. We don't know if Suárez will stick around beyond this season, while both Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are getting older, not younger. If the Phillies believe in Abel half as much as they believe in Painter, that is undeniably a positive.

For Painter individually, however, it complicates what was already an uphill battle to crack the MLB roster and stick at such a young age. The Phillies are incentivized to take it slow with Painter, given his injury history and his relative lack of reps as a pro. Should Abel continue to perform at such a high level, perhaps that just pushes back Painter's debut timeline until 2026.