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Truist Championship picks: One-and-done, sleepers and the one favorite we’re avoiding at Quail Hollow

The Truist Championship returns to Quail Hollow and our picks and predictions have a clear theme.
Ludvig Åberg
Ludvig Åberg | Tracy Wilcox/GettyImages

The Truist Championship returns home on the PGA Tour to Quail Hollow in Charlotte, NC, this week after it was moved to Philadelphia Cricket Club last year with the PGA Championship being held at the Queen City course. This also marks the return of Rory McIlory in his first start since his second Masters victory, but we aren't picking Rory, despite his illustrious history at Quail Hollow, this week. Instead, we're going with other currently elite tee-to-green players who can pass the test throughout the bag at the 2026 Truist Championship.

We have our three outright picks already out in the ether thanks to SI Golf, and we're rolling with Ludvig Åberg (+1800), Adam Scott (+3300), and Alex Fitzpatrick (+14500) as our picks to win (those are the odds we got the picks in at). But let's dive a bit deeper into some more picks that you should consider this week for the 2026 Truist Championship, especially with back-to-back winners in regular stroke play events after hitting Matt Fitzpatrick at the RBC Heritage and Cameron Young last week at the Cadillac Championship.

Favorite play at the Truist Championship

Truist Championship picks, Ludvig Åberg
Ludvig Åberg | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Ludvig Åberg Top 10 incl. ties +140 (BetMGM)

While I'm bullish on Ludvig Åberg's chances to win — just as I was when we played Cameron Young for a Top 5 finish last week while also having him as an outright pick — that extends to confidence that his form and fit at Quail Hollow this week should lend themselves to the Swede finding his way to the top of the leaderboard in some capacity, even if he doesn't end up holding the hardware.

No matter which way you slice it, the 26-year-old has been phenomenal in the 2026 season. If you just look at results, he has finished in the Top 5 in four of his last six starts and has been T21 or better in all six of those outings. Statistically, it might be even better, as Åberg is fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green over the last 24 rounds while also ranking fifth on approach, seventh off the tee and 13th around the green. Oh, he's also ninth in driving distance heading to one of the longer courses on the PGA Tour.

This isn't necessarily hedging bets on Åberg to win this week — it's more about giving ourselves multiple opportunities to cash with him at the Truist Championship, where I fully believe he's going to be heavily in the mix all week long based on everything we're seeing from him.

Sleepers and dark horses at Quail Hollow

Truist Championship picks, Jordan Spieth
Jordan Spieth | Jeff Romance-Imagn Images

Jordan Spieth +5000 (FanDuel)

Name-brand wise, Jordan Spieth certainly isn't a sleeper. But at 50/1 this week, it does certainly feel like he's slipping a bit more under the radar than he probably should this week. Spieth has added distance off the tee, even if his accuracy is in question, but has capitalized while being 12th in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds and 13th in SG: Tee-to-Green over that same span. He's also been a Top 20 putter on Bermuda as well, which all lends itself to finding some success this week at the Truist Championship.

While you can look at these outright, I'm going to also offer a prop play for sleepers moving forward that I think should allow you to maximize some of your value on guys I'm eyeing heading into the week. For Spieth, I do think a win might be a bit pie in the sky given there are some inconsistencies to worry about still, but I do think his form puts him in line for a Top 20 finish this week.

Best way to play Spieth: Top 20 incl. ties +140 (BetMGM)

Bud Cauley +11000 (Bet365)

It's quietly been a solid run for Bud Cauley this year. It's not enough for anyone to really talk about him, but the finishes have been strong. In his last six starts, Cauley has three finishes of T21 or better, including a solo seventh-place finish at the RBC Heritage. Perhaps just as importantly, he's not missed a cut over that span either, not that that matters this week in a no-cut signature event.

What intrigues me more than the finishes, though, is the profile. Cauley is middle of the pack in driving distance, but he's made up for that still to be 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green over the last 24 rounds with Top 20 approach play and Top 10 around-the-green play as well. That's good enough for me to give him a look, and getting plus odds for finishing Top 30 in a field that only includes 72 total players is highly intriguing.

Best way to play Cauley: Top 30 incl. ties +150 (BetMGM)

Public favorite I'm fading this week

Truist Championship picks, Cameron Youn
Cameron Young | Jeff Romance-Imagn Images

Cameron Young +950 (FanDuel)

This is absolutely no shade at Cameron Young, who is playing like a top-three player in the world right now and completely boat-raced the field at Doral. And Quail Hollow, in all honesty, should suit his game and his current form quite well.

In reality, this is all about the rigors of winning back-to-back weeks on the PGA Tour. Frankly, it's just unlikely and something I tend to shy away from picking. And considering that Young's odds have now dipped below the 10/1 mark this week, I'm going to put a soft fade on him to win. He very well could make me look quite stupid, and I have no problem eating crow if that's the case. But he's just not someone I'm putting on the card this week.

Cadillac Championship One and Done pick

Ludvig Åberg

Given his pedigree and profile, One and Done players might've already burned Åberg at this point in the season. If that's the case, that's more than fine, as we have some additional options and picks you could make in your OAD league. However, if that's not the case and you have the Swede available, I love the spot here. Maybe he could make a bit more money if he were to win a major championship for the first time this year, but I think he's quite close to being a lock for me as a high finisher this week to get a large share of the $20 million purse.

Other options to consider: Adam Scott, Si Woo Kim

One massive longshot to win the Cadillac Championship

Truist Championship picks, Alex Fitzpatrick
Alex Fitzpatrick | Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Alex Fitzpatrick +15000 (DraftKings)

You want a huge longshot, look no further than Alex Fitzpatrick. Yes, his brother Matt is one of the favorites, but I think that Alex is being severely undervalued at 150/1 (or even the 145/1 that I picked him at earlier in the week) when it comes to his form and what he's already showcased in his brief time on the PGA Tour.

Fitzpatrick has two wins (albeit one with Matt in the Zurich Classic) and then a T9 showing last week at the Cadillac Championship. While the data is limited due to sporadic ShotLink availability on the DP World Tour, ball-striking has been what has carried Alex of late, including gaining 1.95 strokes tee-to-green per round at Doral last week, and being around Top 30 in terms of Driving Distance in that as well.

Much like our other sleepers mentioned, maybe Fitzpatrick doesn't win this week. But he's striking the ball too well while coming into a course like Quail Hollow that demands such a thing to not be interested in what he could put forth this week. With him being 150/1 outright, that leaves a ton of value on the placement market. I have Top 20 as the best way to play him, but he's even plus odds for a Top 30 as well if you're so inclined.

Best way to play Fitzpatrick: Top 20 incl. ties +240 (BetMGM)

Note: Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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