The North Carolina Tar Heels saw their season end on Friday night at the hands of Ole Miss by a score of 71-64 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Much as they did in their ACC Tournament loss to Duke, the Heels dug themselves an enormous hole early, only to fight all the way back to within one possession in the final minute.
It's a story that Carolina fans have seen ad nauseum this year, and in the end, UNC died like it lived — unable to quite do enough right in the second half to overcome all that it did wrong in the first half. It's a painful end to the season, but not a surprising one.
The music is still playing for 16 teams in the Big Dance, but for the second time in Hubert Davis' four years, that group does not include his team. It's an unfamiliar feeling for a program that seemed throughout the decades to have an annual date with the tournament's second weekend, and despite Davis' extension that was signed in December, there's as much uncertainty surrounding the state of UNC basketball than there has been since Matt Doherty was shown the door in 2003.
So where do the Tar Heels go from here? Let's wrap up the season by going over what went wrong against Ole Miss, what went wrong all season, and what the future holds.
The loss to Ole Miss was a microcosm of Carolina's entire season
It wasn't surprising that UNC, a No. 11 seed, lost to Ole Miss, a No. 6 seed. It's definitely not surprising that it happened the way it did, with Chris Beard's team building a huge lead and then withstanding a furious Carolina comeback. The way the game played out was strange though, in that it went against what each team typically excels at.
Ole Miss entered the game fourth in the nation in turnover margin, but Carolina was able to flip that stat on its head as they forced 14 turnovers, many of which came during that second-half comeback from 22 down. The Heels only turned it over nine times themselves.
Two stats in particular doomed UNC. They were outrebounded by six despite Ole Miss ranking as one of the worst rebounding teams in the tournament. Even worse was that the Rebels nearly doubled Carolina's performance from the 3-point line, going 8-20 compared to 5-24 for the Heels. That included Sean Pedulla's back-breaking 3 with 52 seconds left to turn a two-point game into a five-point one.
After lighting it up by making 14 of 24 threes against San Diego State on Tuesday night, Carolina's cold shooting against Ole Miss hurt even worse. RJ Davis in particular was unable to match what he did against the Aztecs. He shot just 35 percent from the field and 1-8 from three, compared to a perfect 6-6 from outside on Tuesday. Normally ultra-reliable at the free throw line, he went just 2-4, which included missing the front end of a 1-and-1 in the second half.
Davis ends his career as the second-leading scorer in UNC history, but he didn't go out the way he hoped to. His absence will leave an enormous hole in the Carolina backcourt.
Ole Miss went on to destroy Iowa State in the second round to reach the Sweet Sixteen, a fact that will only rub salt in the wound of this one final near-miss.
UNC season in review shows that close isn't close enough
Six of the 16 teams still standing in the tournament beat Carolina this year, and other than the one extremely lopsided loss at Duke and the rematch in Chapel Hill in which the Blue Devils pulled away in the second half, every game was at least reasonably close. That includes the ACC Tournament semifinal loss to Duke, losses to fellow 1-seeds Auburn and Florida, losses to 2-seeds Michigan State and Alabama, and of course Friday's loss to Ole Miss.
Close but no cigar shows that the Heels aren't so far away from being back in the upper echelon of college basketball, but when you're the University of North Carolina, that isn't going to cut it. It's also not at all indicative of what next season will look like, because college basketball starts fresh each year now more than ever in the age of NIL and the transfer portal.
RJ Davis will be gone after five years. Jae'Lyn Withers, who had a habit of canceling big-time plays with some of the most costly mental errors you've ever seen (see the lane violation against Duke for proof) is also gone after two years in Chapel Hill.
The transfer portal is a constant concern in this era, as is the NBA Draft. To that end, Ian Jackson and Drake Powell are far from locks to return to school, and if they do, there's no guarantee they'll be back in Chapel Hill. Both are on NBA scouts' radar and could be taken in the first round.
Of the two, it feels like Jackson won't be back one way or another. There was a point a couple months ago when he looked like Carolina's best player, but for whatever reason, he seemed to lose his confidence and fall out of favor in recent weeks. His minutes dropped, his points plummeted, and by the end of the season, he looked nothing like the guy that scored 20 or more in six out of seven games in December and January. He went scoreless in 10 minutes against Duke in the ACC Tournament, and scored just one in 10 minutes against Ole Miss.
Elliot Cadeau might also be a candidate for a change of scenery, though it seems more likely that he'll stick around along with Seth Trimble to give this backcourt some continuity in Davis' absence. Cadeau is immensely talented, but he's also prone to careless turnovers and silly fouls. He also needs to continue working on his shooting, which took small strides this year but has a ways to go.
What is UNC's outlook for next year?
Carolina really missed Armando Bacot this year, both from a post scoring and a leadership standpoint. Ven-Allen Lubin really came on in the second half of the year, and he can return for one more season. That's a great start. Jalen Washington should be back too, but personally I'm excited to see what rising sophomore James Brown is able to do in his second year.
I'd also bet that Cadeau and Trimble return along with Powell. They'll be joined by three highly touted freshmen that should hopefully change the talent level and chemistry of the team for the better. Caleb Wilson is a top-10 recruit that chose UNC over Kentucky to give Hubert Davis a huge win on the recruiting trail. He's a combo forward that can score, pass and defend, and who sounds like a more athletic Harrison Ingram, which is extremely enticing.
Isaiah Denis is a 6-foot-6 point guard, and that alone should excite Carolina fans after rooting for such an undersized backcourt these last two years. Denis is fast with a capital F, and could single-handedly restore the Tar Heels to their perch as one of the best transition teams in the sport.
Derek Dixon plays a similar style to RJ Davis. He's a quality shooter from inside and outside the arc, and he's comfortable playing with the ball in his hands or off the ball. He's also a bit taller than Davis at 6-foot-3, which will help him get his shot away when defenses key on him.
Carolina improved as the season went along, but the vibes around this team were never great due to its inability to beat good teams and a propensity for blowing games late. Hubert Davis is going to be facing a make-or-break season, and he needs to hope not only that his new trio of freshmen are able to make a difference, but that he'll be able to find experienced contributors in the transfer portal, something that outside of Lubin, he failed to do this past year.
This is a team that needed a fresh start, even if there was hope that it was capable of making an NCAA Tournament run once it was fortunate enough to get in. Obviously that didn't materialize, but I'd still expect the Heels to be ranked when the preseason poll comes out later in the year, with a chance to greatly improve on this disappointing season.