Despite all of the turmoil around the North Carolina Tar Heels and head coach Hubert Davis this season, UNC basketball remains very much alive to be part of March Madness. Of course, the work isn't done to secure a spot in the 2025 NCAA Tournament but the Tar Heels have been doing everything in their power to this point to make that happen.
While fans in Chapel Hill can still lament the missed opportunity on Feb. 10 against Clemson, North Carolina has more than taken care of business since then, winning five straight games by double digits and scoring at least 91 points in all but one of those games. UNC has started to come alive at the right time, even if it's come against lesser competition in the ACC.
Unfortunately, it hasn't been enough.
According to ESPN Bracketology expert Joe Lunardi and his latest update, UNC is the second team among the First Four Out. And while Oklahoma is ahead of them in that category, the Tar Heels would be better served looking to the Mountain West for the teams that they should actively be rooting against over the final week before Selection Sunday.
North Carolina getting put on wrong side of bubble by Mountain West in latest Joe Lunardi Bracketology
New Mexico is essentially a lock to make the field of 68 for the NCAA Tournament but it's the teams below them in the Mountain West standings that make the conference public enemy No. 1 in Chapel Hill.
The Utah State Aggies are among the Last Four Byes in Lunardi's Bracketology update while the San Diego State Aztecs and Boise State Broncos are among the Last Four In. That, of course, puts all three programs ahead of North Carolina and with an eye toward the end of the conference's regular season and the conference tournament as well.
Truth be told, not much that seems realistic could happen in the regular season to help out the Tar Heels for March Madness. While Boise State has a tough Friday matchup against Colorado State, the Rams are the first team in the Next Four Out category, so a Broncos loss could still lead to UNC being leapfrogged. Utah State and Nevada, meanwhile, have home regular-season finales against the bottom-half of the confernece. It'd be a sizable upset for either of those teams to fall.
UNC's best hope, instead, lies in the Mountain West Tournament. An early exit by any of these teams could be the Tar Heels' best friend with their eyes toward March Madness. As long as North Carolina doesn't suffer a premature exit of their own, that might be enough to nudge the Heels into the field of 68.
What feels more important for North Carolina, however, is controlling their own destiny. A win on Saturday in the rivalry matchup against Duke to end the regular season in Chapel Hill would surely vault UNC into the Last Four In at minimum, if not higher. If they could pair that with a win over Louisville or Clemson in the ACC Tournament, that would raise their chances even higher, potentially keeping them out of the First Four in Dayton. Even a loss to Duke and that type of ACC Tournament win could do the trick too.
All this is to say, the Mountain West is the enemy for North Carolina right now and the Tar Heels' March future is anything but certain. It's going to be a sweaty week in Chapel Hill leading up to Selection Sunday.