There are two important things you need to know about the North Carolina Tar Heels men's basketball team right now. First, they've won five straight games, their longest winning streak of the season. Second, it doesn't seem to be doing much of anything for their NCAA Tournament hopes.
Carolina has been on the wrong side of the bubble since losing four of five games in January. That's what happens when you combine a near-total lack of quality wins with losses to teams whose only hope of being in the NCAA Tournament is if they buy a ticket. UNC is 1-10 in Quad 1 games. So many of those games were close, meaning if they'd just found a way to win a couple of them, they'd likely be worried about what seed they would get and not wondering if they could make the tournament at all. A 5-0 record in Quad 2 helps but doesn't erase that.
The Heels are playing much better lately, seemingly recognizing the urgency and precariousness of their current situation. They've won these last five games by an average of 15 points, handling their business against what is, to be fair, the also-rans of a very mediocre ACC.
Because their opponents are so weak, these wins are going on Carolina's tournament resume, but they're in small print because the Heels know it won't help them get the job. Losing any one of them would have been catastrophic, so it's a good thing they won. But if the Heels want to feel safe about hearing their name on Selection Sunday, they'll need to either shock Duke this weekend or make a run in the ACC Tournament.
Today we're talking all things Bracketology, which is quickly becoming Carolina fans' least-favorite science. How does UNC look? Who are they competing with? What needs to happen? Let's get into it.
Where does Carolina stand in the latest ESPN Bracketology?
Joe Lunardi has become public enemy number one for Tar Heels nation, but it's hard to blame him for how UNC is perceived right now. Joey Brackets has consistently had Carolina in his "First Four Out" group, even as some teams have jumped them to get into the field and others have fallen out completely.
His latest bracket, which was just published Tuesday morning, has the Heels three spots away from grabbing the final at-large bid, and keep in mind, that's without factoring in any bid thieves that could unexpectedly win their conference tournaments.
The good news is that thanks to their recent swoons, UNC seems to be entrenched ahead of fellow ACC members SMU and Wake Forest. The Mustangs have lost three of their last five, while the Demon Deacons have dropped four of six, including a Cooper Flagg-led 93-60 back-alley beating on Monday night.
Who does Lunardi have ahead of the Heels, and can they be caught?
As of now, Lunardi's "Last Four In" are Ohio State, Arkansas, Nebraska and Boise St. Oklahoma and Xavier are next in line to grab a spot, and Texas is just behind UNC.
Ohio State is hanging on for dear life. They're only 16-13 on the year and 10-8 in the Big Ten, and they only just snapped a three-game losing streak by winning at USC on Wednesday. They play Nebraska on Tuesday night in what may be a win-and-get-in game.
Nebraska has a very similar resume. Whereas the Buckeyes are 9-13 in Quad 1 and 2 games, the Huskers are 9-10. They're in the midst of their own three-game losing streak, which includes a 17-point loss at Penn St. and a home loss to Minnesota.
Arkansas has lost three of five, but playing in the SEC means that even most losses help their resume. The Razorbacks are 17-12 overall and 6-12 in Quad 1 and 2, but they can hang their hat on that huge road win at Kentucky in John Calipari's first game back to Rupp Arena. If they can get one more win in their last two against Vanderbilt and Mississippi St., they should be safe.
Boise St. hasn't dealt with the same difficult schedule that the Tar Heels have, but they're a very solid 7-6 in Quad 1 and 2 games, and they've won eight of nine. They also beat Clemson by double digits at home. Carolina lost by 20 at Littlejohn Coliseum just before beginning this winning streak. That data point is a huge checkmark in the Broncos' favor.
How can the Tar Heels sneak into the NCAA Tournament?
Carolina's path to the tournament is like one of those flow charts. It can be quite simple. Did you beat Duke? If yes, you're in the tournament. That'll be much easier said than done though, as the Heels looked outmatched athletically, tactically, you name it when the teams met last month at Cameron Indoor Stadium. If they lose, the path to the Big Dance will become much more tenuous.
Duke looks like the best team in the country right now, so even in the Dean Dome, beating them will be an extremely tall order. College Gameday will be in town to celebrate the best rivalry in sports, but if the Heels get dealt another black eye on national television against the Blue Devils, it's going to be a bad look with only the ACC Tournament left to prove themselves.
Before meeting Duke, the Heels will travel to Blacksburg to take on Virginia Tech on Tuesday night. The Hokies aren't particulary good, but any road environment is tough. Carolina cannot afford to lose that game, period.
If the Heels are able to beat Virginia Tech but lose to Duke, it will all come down to the ACC Tournament. A trip to at least the semifinals would be mandatory, especially since that would mean beating one of Clemson, Louisville, or SMU.
That may not even be enough, depending on what the other bubble teams do. Carolina fans need to hope that Nebraska and Ohio State continue their slides and bow out early in the Big Ten Tournament. Boise St.'s resume looks superior to Carolina's, but perhaps an early loss in the Mountain West to a sub-.500 team could put them in danger.
The one thing that Carolina has going in its favor over many of its bubble counterparts is that they're actually playing good basketball right now. The committee looks at which direction each team is pointing, and every year we see a team with an arguably better resume get left out because a similar team got hot in the final few weeks. Carolina can be that team this year, but if they want to have a relaxing Selection Sunday, they better beat Duke or make the ACC Tournament final.