There's a saying among the Carolina faithful: It's a great day to be a Tar Heel. Often abbreviated to GDTBATH, it's shorthand for how good it feels for alums and fans to be a part of such a special school. This is most often manifested throughout basketball season (though the legendary Dean Smith once correctly pointed out that UNC isn't a basketball school, it's a women's soccer school) as the Tar Heels more often than not kick butt and make a run in March.
Those butts are not being kicked, and that run doesn't look like it's going to happen, because this has been a rare season to forget in Chapel Hill. There may be other reasons why it's a great day to be a Tar Heel, but cheering for a team that has lost five of seven games, including last week's lopsided loss at Duke and Monday night's lifeless effort against Clemson, is not currently one of them.
The start of the ACC Tournament is now less than a month away, and if something doesn't change in a hurry, UNC is going to be faced with the very real prospect of needing to cut down the nets in Charlotte just to get invited to the Big Dance.
Let's start our UNC news of the week with an analysis of the Tar Heels' tournament chances before moving on to a comparison between this team and the worst Carolina teams since the turn of the century, plus a look at the remaining regular season schedule.
UNC Bracketology update
The NCAA Tournament picture is coming into focus, and despite all statistical and visual evidence, Carolina is still somehow just barely out of frame. The Heels are now 14-11 and just 7-6 in a mediocre ACC. They're 1-10 in Quad 1 games and and aren't ranked in the top 50 in adjusted offensive or defensive efficiency according to KenPom, yet according to Joe Lunardi in his Tuesday Bracketology column, they're one of the First Four Out, just two spots away from claiming the final bid.
How on earth is Carolina even in the mix? For Tar Heels fans that have been watching the games, it's a complete mystery. There's very little that this team does well. The Heels fall asleep defensively and can't rebound. It feels like opposing teams can get whatever shot they want on every possession, and if they miss, they get a second or third chance. Offensively, UNC often devolves into too much dribbling and perimeter passing without ever threatening the basket. Few guys on the team are capable of making an outside shot.
Carolina is the poster child for why "quality losses" are overvalued when it comes to making the NCAA Tournament. The Heels played a hellacious nonconference schedule, which is theoretically a good thing. The only problem is, they lost almost every one of those games. Compare Carolina to a team like Kansas State, who is only 13-11 but has won six straight games, including four against top-25 teams. The latest Bracketology was published before Jerome Tang's bunch beat Arizona on Tuesday night, but still, the Wildcats weren't even listed as one of the Next Four Out. They would be a much more deserving bid recipient than UNC, and I say that as a Carolina alum and lifelong fan.
Comparing this UNC season to the worst seasons in the 21st century
Since the turn of the century, Carolina has missed the NCAA Tournament five times. This includes the 2020 COVID season, because even though the Big Dance was canceled, the Heels were way out of the picture at 14-19.
As we said above, Carolina is currently 14-11. Here were the records in the five seasons in which they missed the tournament.
Record | Year |
|---|---|
2022-23 | 20-13 |
2019-20 | 14-19 |
2009-10 | 20-17 |
2002-03 | 19-16 |
2001-02 | 8-20 |
As we can see, if the Heels can't manage to win six more games the rest of the way, it will be just the fourth time in a quarter of a century that they've failed to win 20 games. Each of the other three times, the head coach was out within two years (Matt Doherty in 2003 and Roy Williams in 2021).
Barring an improbable late-season turnaround, this team will meet the same fate, and much like the unwitting victims who watched that cursed video in The Ring, the clock will be ticking on Hubert Davis, just as it was for his predecessors.
Diving a bit deeper into the numbers, it's no surprise that the 8-20 team in 2001-02 was the worst of the bunch. KenPom had that group ranked as the 137th best team in the country, sandwiched between juggernauts like Georgia Southern and Chattanooga. On a not-so-fun side note, that was my freshman year at Carolina, and I blamed myself for jinxing the Heels with my presence alone.
The following year, KenPom had the Heels 57th, with a very similar statistical profile to this year's team. That underachieving team had Sean May, Raymond Felton and Rashad McCants but went on to win the national title just two years later after Roy Williams took over.
The 2009-10 team was 61st, which is respectable considering nearly the entire national championship roster from the year before was gone, including Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Danny Green and Wayne Ellington.
Carolina has always bounced back from the rare off-year, but it's alarming that this is looking like the third time in six seasons that this will happen. This isn't the kind of history this team wants to make.
Looking ahead to UNC's remaining schedule
The Heels finish the regular season by hosting Duke, but other than that Senior Day date with the Blue Devils, they don't exactly face a murderer's row down the stretch. Here's the remaining schedule.
Opponent | Home/Away | Date | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
Syracuse | Away | 2/15 | 6 p.m. ET |
NC State | Home | 2/19 | 7 p.m. ET |
Virginia | Home | 2/22 | 4 p.m. ET |
Florida State | Away | 2/24 | 7 p.m. ET |
Miami | Home | 3/1 | 12 p.m. ET |
Virginia Tech | Away | 3/4 | 7 p.m. ET |
Duke | Home | 3/8 | 6:30 p.m. ET |
The Heels are not playing good basketball right now, but this is an extremely manageable schedule. The only issue is that it's not exactly going to help them pile up quality wins. Syracuse just lost to Miami, the worst team in the league. NC State has lost eight in a row. Virginia is only 12-12 on the year. You get the idea.
Other than Duke, the best team on this list according to KenPom is Florida State, who currently sits at 80. Needless to say, while none of these potential wins will do much more UNC's resume, a loss to any of them would probably be a death blow.
If Carolina can run the table before losing to Duke, they'd be 20-12 with the ACC Tournament still to play. On a weak bubble, that might be enough to squeeze them into the field, even if UNC fans wouldn't be confident of their chances to make any noise once they got there.