It's been one of the more frustrating seasons in recent history for the boys in the best shade of blue, but with about three weeks to go until Selection Sunday, it's looking like Hubert Davis has his North Carolina Tar Heels peaking at the right time. Don't look now, but the Heels aren't out of this yet.
UNC could have quit on the season after getting embarrassed at Clemson two weeks ago, but instead the Heels have been motivated by that awful performance, turning in four straight wins to resurrect their NCAA Tournament hopes and pull to within a game of a double bye in the ACC Tournament.
Though their recent wins have all come against opponents that will have lots of time on their hands in March, Carolina is passing the eye test for the first time this season. This just looks like a completely different team, one that is playing with more energy and more togetherness than they have in a year.
What's responsible for this turnaround, and will it be enough to book a spot to the Big Dance? Let's look at what went right in Tallahassee on Monday night, then get into the deeper reasons behind UNC's newfound success.
North Carolina gets a big win at Florida State
Florida State has had some really good teams over the course of Leonard Hamilton's 23-year tenure. This one, his last before his impending retirement, is ... fine. Not Tournament-worthy, but not an ACC bottom-dweller. These Noles can beat most teams on any given night.
Even when Carolina has been at its vintage best, a trip to Tallahassee has caused problems before. Tar Heels fans know that this is never a game you can overlook no matter the matchup, and especially so when the Heels have struggled so much on the road, as they have this year.
That's why it was so encouraging to see Carolina show some mental toughness in this one. Cade Tyson put the Heels ahead with just over three minutes to go in the first half, and the team never looked back, leading most of the second half by double digits.
The defense wasn't even very good, as the Seminoles shot 50 percent from three and 54 percent overall. None of that mattered, because RJ Davis has his swagger back, the bigs turned in another efficient performance and Seth Trimble scored 17 off the bench.
This was the toughest non-Duke test left in the regular season, and the Heels passed it with flying colors.
Jae'Lyn Withers is coming on strong
One of the keys to Carolina's run has been Jae'Lyn Withers. Much maligned after transferring from Louisville last year, Withers hasn't always been an additive player. Sometimes he'll knock down a big shot or make an important defensive play, but he's been just as likely to hoist an ill-advised contested three or let the ball slip through his fingers at the worst time.
That hasn't been the case lately. Withers has shot over 60 percent from the floor in each of the last four games. He's pouring it in from three especially, shooting a definitely-unsustainable-but-we'll-take-it 10 of 16 from deep. He's also blocked more shots (4), than committed turnovers (3), while giving Hubert Davis a huge dose of much-needed energy.
Withers has started each of the last five games since coming off the bench and playing only six minutes against Pitt on Feb. 8. It doesn't look like he's going to be relinquishing that spot anytime soon, especially with Duke looming, as he and Drake Powell are the best two defensive matchups for Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel.
It's taken most of the season for the Heels to figure out the hierarchy and roles within the team. Withers has finally found himself as the glue guy that this team was missing, and not a moment too soon.
A lot has changed in the last two weeks for the Tar Heels
The things that were killing Carolina earlier in the season have suddenly turned into strengths. The Heels are almost always an elite rebounding team, but since Armando Bacot left they've spent most of the year being bullied on the boards by stronger teams. Now they're swarming to the glass and creating transition chances off of it. That's Carolina basketball.
The offense, which has struggled to find easy points all year, is now humming. The Heels are averaging 90.5 points in their last four. Three-point shooting was an Achilles heel, but it's been over 44 percent during this winning streak.
The defense hasn't exactly been shutting teams down, but I credit Hubert Davis for mixing it up. The Heels have been picking up full court after the occasional make, and they've even busted out a zone here and there. I mentioned rebounding earlier — these last three games have featured three of the best rebounding margins of the season.
Carolina is one of the First Four Out in Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology, and the teams around them are going in the opposite direction. It may come down to choosing between UNC and either Wake Forest or SMU for one of those final spots. The Demon Deacons have lost two of three to teams that the Heels just beat, and the Mustangs have lost two of three also. UNC is now only a half-game behind each in the ACC standings. Passing both would get the Heels to fourth and a double bye in the ACC Tournament.
To feel safe (barring a run of mid-major bid stealers, which is always every bubble team's worst nightmare), Carolina likely needs to take care of business against Miami and Virginia Tech and not get totally embarrassed against Duke in the regular season finale. An appearance in the ACC Tournament semis should seal the deal.
The resume is going to be unsightly when it comes to Quad 1 games no matter what the Heels do, but getting above 20 wins while playing their best ball of the season has to be enough to get in, especially with how weak the bubble is this year.
If UNC makes the Dance, could they make a run? We need to see more than just four games, but Hubert Davis has taken a late-blooming team to the national championship game before. Heels fans, don't give up hope yet.