UNC men's basketball news: Hubert Davis under fire, NCAA Tournament chances, Duke preview

What is going on with the North Carolina Tar Heels? The once-proud program, one of the few true blue bloods in college basketball, lost once again on Tuesday night to drop to 13-9 on the season and 6-4 in the very mediocre ACC.

There can be no doubt right now that if the NCAA Tournament started next week, UNC would be on the outside looking in. It's one thing to play a difficult schedule, as the Tar Heels have. It's another to actually register some quality wins, which they've consistently failed to do. At this moment in time the Heels have a catastrophic 1-8 record in Quad 1 games, and it's difficult to envision a scenario where they go better than 1-3 in their final four opportunities (a home-and-home against Duke, at Clemson, and at Florida State).

It turns out that the positivity brought about by five-star recruit Caleb Wilson choosing Carolina over Kentucky last week was extremely short-lived. Head coach Hubert Davis is under fire and the Heels' NCAA Tournament chances are dwindling. With a game at Cameron Indoor Stadium against Cooper Flagg and company looming on Saturday, this situation has the potential to get even uglier. Let's go over it.

Is Hubert Davis on the hot seat?

This is Hubert Davis' fourth season in charge after taking over for Roy Williams, and in three of those years, the Tar Heels have been on the bubble midway through conference play. This is not what Carolina basketball is about, but it's increasingly becoming the norm.

Davis is a Tar Heel alum, and a great one, both from his playing days and in his role as an assistant under Williams. He did lead Carolina to the national title game and end Mike Krzyzewski's career in the Final Four, an accomplishment that once seemed sure to make him as untouchable as Dean Smith and Williams ever were.

Three years later, that's certainly not the case, and UNC fans don't have to look back too far to remember Matt Doherty, another Carolina alum that played under Dean Smith, being run out of town on a rail for the way he failed to make something of the Raymond Felton-Rashad McCants-Sean May era. The Carolina family roots run deep, but not deep enough to cover for the program slipping from the ranks of the elite.

Carolina has more talent than most teams, but they don't play like a group that's well-coached. Elliot Cadeau, Ian Jackson and Drake Powell are five-star recruits. RJ Davis is the second-leading scorer in program history. But when push comes to shove, the Heels are a mess. They turned the ball over 14 times against Pitt on Tuesday, which led to an insurmountable 22-4 difference in points off turnovers.

The Heels took a two-point lead on an RJ Davis three with 9:02 left, then proceeded to score six points the rest of the game while looking completely stagnant offensively. The defense wasn't much better, as Pitt joined just about every other Carolina opponent by getting whatever look they wanted for most of the night, both at the three-point line and in the paint.

Davis deserves the heat he's taken for failing to find a quality center to replace Armando Bacot. Blame it on NIL or whatever you like, the fact is that this team wasn't constructed well.

Observers have pointed to a lack of leadership on the roster, but leadership starts at the top. Davis hasn't been providing that in a meaningful enough way, and if Carolina misses the tournament this year, he may be down to his last chance to turn things around.

Can Carolina still make the NCAA Tournament?

There are 68 teams that will be dancing in March, and if you're a major program that is at all serious about basketball, there's no excuse to miss out on the field. Nevertheless, the Heels are staring that possibility right in the eye. Nine losses at this point of the season is a ton, and barring a hot streak like the 2021-22 team went on, the selection committee is not going to have a lot to point to in Carolina's favor. This is a program that you used to be able to pencil into the Sweet Sixteen every year, so the fall from grace is stunning.

What does Carolina have to do to get in? First off, they need a signature win. Beating Duke, who currently has the longest winning streak in the country, would be enormous, and the Heels will have two chances to get it done. Other than that, a road date at Littlejohn Coliseum to face Clemson is the only other real chance outside of the ACC Tournament to do anything all that impressive.

In addition to that, Carolina can't afford any more losses to the also-rans of the ACC. Wake Forest and Stanford are perfectly competent teams, but those are games you have to win, period. It took a last-minute four-point comeback and overtime to beat lowly Boston College in the Dean Dome this past weekend. That's unacceptable for a team with tournament aspirations.

Unless the Heels somehow get red-hot and beat Duke twice, they're looking at a double-digit NCAA Tournament seed at best. The way things are going though, the NIT is looking much more likely.

Previewing the game at Duke

They say you throw the records out in a rivalry game, and Carolina better hope that's true, because Duke looks like a national championship favorite right now. UNC, as we've belabored, does not.

The Heels have been killed by teams with size this season, and unfortunately, Duke plays big. The Blue Devils' entire starting lineup is 6-foot-6 or taller. Carolina often starts four players that are under 6-foot-5. Freshman Khaman Maluach is an outstanding shot blocker and finisher around the rim, and even if Jalen Washington is able to return from the knee sprain he suffered against Boston College (he missed the Pitt game after going through warmups), this is still a matchup that strongly favors Duke.

Carolina teams are traditionally great at rebounding. This one is not, but Duke is, so how can the Heels make up for such a disparity on the boards? For one thing, Ian Jackson is going to have to take his matchup with Cooper Flagg personally. The presumed No. 1 pick is well on his way to winning ACC Player of the Year and possibly the Wooden Award, but Jackson is no slouch. When he gets going, he's a gifted shooter and scorer, and Carolina will need him to rise to the challenge and have a career day.

Duke is second in the country at 2-point field goal percentage allowed, which makes sense with their size. To have a shot, UNC has to win the backcourt battle, and its guards are going to have to shoot lights-out from three. Tyrese Proctor is playing a more complementary role as the freshmen Flagg, Maluach, and Kon Knueppel have taken over, but he's still a quality guard. Elliot Cadeau, RJ Davis and Seth Trimble need to beat him off the dribble and make shots from outside, while avoiding all of the costly turnovers that we saw against Pitt.

Duke has been smashing nearly everyone in the ACC by double digits. On paper, this is a lopsided matchup, but if UNC wants to turn its season around, Saturday would be a good time to start.