The North Carolina Tar Heels haven't exactly lived in a bubble when it comes to feeling the effects of the NCAA's new version of player movement, but they've been more immune than most. Perhaps being able to count on seeing Armando Bacot and RJ Davis donning that Carolina blue is why things have felt somewhat normal as the old model of college basketball has been upended, but with Bacot now a year removed from collegiate eligibility and Davis having played his last game as a Tar Heel in March, it's about to get weird in Chapel Hill.
The Tar Heels have dipped their toe in the waters of one-and-dones, but they haven't cannonballed in to nearly the same degree as fellow blue bloods Duke and Kentucky. Part of that has been by choice, but it's also due to those other schools having a better sales pitch to the top recruits in the country. Think UNC would have turned down Cooper Flagg if he had Carolina on his mind? Think again.
One positive effect of this is keeping kids on campus longer and watching them grow throughout their time in school. It's why, despite being one of the biggest names in college basketball, the Heels have operated at closer to a mid-major philosophy that values experience and continuity over pure talent.
The transfer portal has changed all that, and I think it's fair to say that those days are gone. The times, they have-a changed, to paraphrase Bob Dylan, and if the Heels don't want to be left behind, they need to change with them.
This upcoming season is going to be a fascinating test case for whether they'll be able to do that. The roster looks like what Hubert Davis would have fielded if we lived in the timeline of Thanos' snap from the Avenger movies, as nearly every name we've come to know and love has just up and disappeared.
Of the 10 players that participated in at least 20 games for the Heels last year, nine of them are no longer in Chapel Hill. That kind of turnover is unprecedented, at least for UNC fans, and it's going to take a lot of getting used to this new way of doing things. Here's where everyone went:
Player | Destination |
|---|---|
Elliot Cadeau | Transferred to Michigan |
Ty Claude | Graduated |
RJ Davis | Graduated |
Ian Jackson | Transferred to St. John's |
Ven-Allen Lubin | Transferred to NC State |
Drake Powell | Entered NBA Draft |
Cade Tyson | Transferred to Minnesota |
Jalen Washington | Transferred to Vanderbilt |
Jae'Lyn Withers | Graduated |
Of course, we can't just blame this on the transfer portal itself. Carolina, and Hubert Davis specifically, have to own responsibility for so many players voluntarily deciding that UNC was no longer the place for them.
Running through the list of transfers, it becomes apparent that Davis needs to change the way he operates. Elliot Cadeau is an ultra-talented, former five-star point guard, but he showed little development in either his predilection for silly turnovers or his ability to stay out of foul trouble.
Ian Jackson and Drake Powell were both five-star recruits themselves, but both freshmen obviously soured on the program. Jackson was on his way to being an All-ACC selection before inexplicably falling off midway through the year. Both his minutes and impact dropped precipitously to the point where he was an afterthought by time the Heels made the NCAA Tournament. Powell was the most athletic player and the best defender on the team, but he never felt like more than a tertiary option in the offense. It's no wonder both left.
Cade Tyson and Jalen Washington transferring is hardly a surprise given the limited roles they both played, but the one that really hurts is Ven-Allen Lubin. Maybe it shouldn't, given that Lubin has bounced from campus to campus every season in going from Notre Dame to Vanderbilt to UNC. Transferring to NC State, though, feels like a statement, whether it's intended to be or not. To me it says two things. First, that new Wolfpack coach Will Wade is not afraid of going right at his new rival, and two, that Lubin didn't just want to leave, he wanted to hurt his former team on his way out.
I wrote recently about how Lubin's transfer needs to be a wake-up call to the program, and I hope it is. He was legitimately Carolina's savior in the frontcourt last season, especially in the second half of the year when he scored in double figures in the final 11 games.
The Tar Heels are counting on an almost entirely new crop of players to carry them
Seth Trimble and rising sophomore James Brown will be the only familiar faces this year. Who will be joining them? It will be a while until we know how this group plays together, but although the team might need to wear name tags for a few weeks so that the fans can get to know them and they can get to know each other, there are definitely some things to be excited about. Here's our best guess at what the starting lineup will look like.
Point guard: Kyan Evans
Shooting guard: Seth Trimble
Small forward: Jonathan Powell
Power forward: Caleb Wilson
Center: Henri Veesaar
Let's start at point guard, where Colorado State transfer Kyan Evans looks like the natural fit to replace Cadeau. He shot over 44.6 percent from 3 last year and over 47 percent from the floor, an excellent number for a guard, and he was a huge reason why the Rams were one of the hottest teams in the country at the end of the season. His 23 points and six made 3s against Memphis in the first round allowed CSU to reach the Round of 32 for the first time since 2013.
Cadeau and RJ Davis soaked up much of the backcourt limelight last season, but Seth Trimble consistently made winning plays. With both gone, he'll now have the chance to shine even brighter. Trimble is a plus defender and an outstanding athlete capable of posterizing a waiting defender at the rim, but he's also a great bet to come up with any loose ball due to his hustle. The Tar Heels struggled mightily to rebound the ball last year, but he pulled down five per game.
Even with the loss of Cadeau and Davis, Hubert Davis has quietly put together a deep backcourt. Behind Evans and Trimble, there are promising freshmen in Derek Dixon and Isaiah Denis, and former Virginia Tech Hokie Jaydon Young, a North Carolina native. Dixon is a four-star combo guard from Washington, D.C. with deadly shooting range, while Denis is a fellow four-star from Davidson, NC who is known for his shooting and speed. Young really came on at the end of last season for the Hokies, scoring in double figures in his final six games.
Small forward is the one starting spot that can go a few different ways. Alabama transfer Jarin Stevenson is a 6-foot-11 Chapel Hill native who would give the Heels infinitely more size than they had last year. Recently signed Montenegran Luka Bogavac is an elite shooter, and he'll likely find more time at the 3 than either of the guard positions if Dixon and Denis live up to expectations. At 6-foot-5, he'd give the lineup a different look than Stevenson. Then there's Jonathan Powell, a West Virginia transfer who averaged over 30 minutes per game as a freshman. He also plays more like a guard, but Hubert Davis showed last year that he was willing to put three guards on the court at once. With the size the Heels will have at the 4 and 5, don't be surprised if he does it again.
Caleb Wilson is the single biggest reason to be excited about next year's Heels, but the top-10 recruit's arrival comes with one big caveat: Will Hubert Davis hand him the car keys? Unlike past years when heralded recruits needed to wait in line behind RJ Davis or Armando Bacot, this time there is no big man on campus to blunt Wilson's impact. Carolina beat out Kentucky to win Wilson's services, and this may be their last chance to prove that top recruits should consider coming to Chapel Hill. Wilson has the length and athleticism to guard multiple positions. He's a relentless offensive rebounder and an explosive finisher on the break, but he's also an unselfish teammate that can thrive in an off-ball role. In short, he's the real deal. If he's not getting over 30 minutes per game, there's a problem.
Arizona's Henri Veesaar was Carolina's biggest find in the transfer portal, an ostensible "player to be named later" after Caleb Love left the Heels for the Wildcats in 2023. The big Estonian is a solid rebounder and a guy capable of throwing down lobs. After the Heels were bullied so often by opposing teams in the paint last year, his will be a welcome presence as a rim protector. He'll be backed up by James Brown, a former four-star recruit who didn't see much playing time last year but flashed real upside when he did.
There you have it, Heels fans. This team is going to look much different than last year's, and anyone who tells you they know what to expect is lying. Most pundits I've seen have the Heels rated just outside the top-25, but there are promising pieces here. If they come together in the way Hubert Davis hopes, this season could be a fun ride.