Upside and Motor: Ace Bailey is already incredible, but there's room to grow

Airious 'Ace' Bailey is commonly billed as the No. 2 to Cooper Flagg's No. 1 in a loaded 2025 NBA Draft class. For all the talk of depth and how "special" this group of prospects is, it's remarkable how consistently two names dominate the conversation. It's too early to say Bailey has the second pick locked up (or even that Flagg has No. 1 under wraps), but it's been a while since there was so much early momentum for two distinct prospects.

Bailey missed the first couple games of the season for Rutgers, but he has since made the sterling first impression we all expected. We should always caution against overreactions this early in the campaign — Monmouth and Merrimack don't qualify as elite opponents — but Bailey didn't take long to shake off rust and exert his presence on a Rutgers team with high expectations.

He has the benefit of playing next to another projected lottery pick in Dylan Harper, a point guard whose M.O. is to elevate teammates. Bailey, however, stands out for his 6-foot-10 frame and prototypical athletic tools. There are a lot of Paul George comps floating around, which is catnip for NBA scouts. Everybody wants the next big 3-and-D wing who can self-create and defend.

Bailey has all the pieces. Now, it's time to track how quickly he puts them all together.

Ace Bailey is Cooper Flagg's top challenger in the 2025 NBA Draft, but he's still learning

The tape on Bailey is incredible. He is going to put up highlights on par with some of the greatest prospects of this decade. On a purely aesthetic level, he may be the best watch from the upcoming rookie class. Bailey is such a fluid, skilled operator at 6-foot-10, that it's easy to get caught up in the poetry of his performance — even if some of his more concerning warts have been on full display.

Bailey is the best tough shot-maker in the draft, point blank. He has no trouble shooting over the top of contests and drilling challenging, awkward-angle shots. He will stick it over a double team, hit a Dirk fadeaway in the post, or channel Kevin Durant for a smooth, seamless pull-up jumper off a screen. His shooting touch, size, and athleticism is a potent combination. He has a higher baseline than most as a result.

That said, Bailey can lean too heavily on his tremendous talent, sacrificing process for results. Some of the shots Bailey is taking — these tough fadeaways in traffic — just aren't going to translate as well to the next level. More defenders will at least be able to get into Bailey's body and cause problems in the NBA. His high dribble is particularly worrisome. He can get stiff and robotic with his handle at times. Merrimack's defenders might not be able to exploit that, but what about Lu Dort or Derrick White?

There have been moments where Bailey hits an incredible shot that just wouldn't be possible against quality NBA defenses. The touch and difficultly level are impressive, but Bailey needs to get lower to the ground and better weaponize his burst to create separation. He'll always be able to shoot over the top, but if Bailey can start generating more consistent advantages, it's game over.

Bailey needs to develop from a tier-one shot-maker to a tier-one shot creator. If that ever happens, he will be one of the best offensive players in the NBA one day. The shooting touch is absurd, as is his fluidity attacking downhill and finishing with burst or touch around the rim. Bailey isn't the most consistent passer, another symptom of his tough shot inclination, but he's capable of some visionary dimes. It's all there. It's just a matter of tweaking his approach, refining his immense skill, and letting the game come to him more naturally.

It's fair to say that Bailey, as is, probably isn't the "best" or "most ready" prospect behind Cooper Flagg. Folks like Egor Demin, or even his own teammate in Harper, are more refined at this very moment. That shouldn't knock Bailey out of the No. 2 slot, though. The draft is about projecting ahead, and it won't take more than a few small adjustments for Bailey to take off into the stratosphere.

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You're wrong to annoint Dalton Knecht after four starts

The 2024-25 NBA rookie class is finally starting to break out of its shell a little bit. Jared McCain has been putting up historic scoring numbers of late, while Los Angeles Lakers first-round pick Dalton Knecht appears to be detonating as JJ Redick's new installment in the starting lineup.

Thrust into the spotlight by an injury to Rui Hachimura, Knecht has been electric across four starts for the Lakers, averaging 23.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 0.8 assists on .603/.576/.857 splits. He dropped 37 points on Nov. 19 against Utah in what is undoubtedly one of the most impressive rookie shot-making displays you'll see all season.

I'm not here to rain on anybody's parade. Lakers fans should be elated with the early returns on Knecht, who always felt spiritually aligned with new head coach JJ Redick. There are definitely front offices starting to second-guess their decision to pass on the Tennessee product.

That said, we shouldn't get too carried away too soon. We saw a similar phenomenon last season when four-year college standout Jaime Jaquez Jr. broke out as a cornerstone of the ailing Miami Heat rotation. Knecht is 23 years old with five years of college basketball experience (and development) under his belt. It's only natural that he's further along than many of his peers in a weak draft, which is precisely what the Lakers bet on with the No. 17 pick.

We should be careful about conflating immediate results with long-term projections, though. There was a lot of Jaquez hype that ran off the rails last season. A prime example: in May, Stephen Noh of Sporting News slotted Jaquez sixth overall in a re-draft. That was ahead of names like Dereck Lively, Brandin Podziemski, and Bilal Coulibaly, younger prospects who didn't quite match Jaquez's immediate impact.

Flash forward to their sophomore campaigns and 20-year-old Coulibaly has blown 23-year-old Jaquez out of the water. This is a common theme in draft circles. Of course older prospects deliver more out of the gate, but the very best prospects from a given draft class tend to be drafted young and developed over time. Let's cool our jets on 'Knecht top-five prospect' revisionist history in November of his rookie season.

He's not going to hit 60 percent of his 3s all season, and the low assist numbers in this brief higher-usage role are a moderate red flag. Knecht should continue to drill tough shots and add a spicy new dynamic to the Lakers offense, but just be careful about reading too far into a small, early sample size.

Which are the five best 'realistic' landing spots for Cooper Flagg?

This is a fun exercise as tanking NBA teams begin to commit to their 'Sag for Flagg' campaign. This list will naturally change and evolve over the course of the season, but let's scope out the bottom of the standings and see which teams would make for especially intriguing Cooper Flagg destinations.

5. Portland Trail Blazers

Cooper Flagg is essentially the perfect connector to bring this Portland Trail Blazers team together. Between multiple high-octane guards and an elite rim protector in Donovan Clingan, what the Blazers are lacking is a 6-foot-10 "wing" who can hit spot 3s, beat closeouts, and pass effectively in the flow of the offense. Flagg's untapped creation upside is a bonus — not to mention his rangy, all-encompassing defensive impact, which would pair beautifully with Clingan's hulking presence in the lane.

4. Charlotte Hornets

The Charlotte Hornets are consistently among the most entertaining "bad" teams in the NBA. Charles Lee finally has Charlotte moving meaningfully in the right direction, and a healthy campaign from LaMelo Ball could be what it takes to finally put the Hornets on the map. If the season ends with Charlotte back in the NBA basement, however, just know you won't be alone in dreaming about the trio of LaMelo, Brandon Miller, and Cooper Flagg, which is remarkably synergistic on paper — not to mention fun.

3. Indiana Pacers

The Indiana Pacers are an especially intriguing team hanging around the bottom of the standings right now. Tyrese Haliburton is still working his way back from an injury, which could tank Indy just enough to have a realistic shot at Flagg. In terms of fit and team need, there isn't a better landing spot. The Pacers run an up-tempo offense that would play to Flagg's strengths out in transition, while his defensive impact on the back line is exactly what this Indiana team is missing.

2. Washington Wizards

Call me crazy, but the Washington Wizards are... exciting. Alex Sarr and Bub Carrington have a ways to go, but the flashes are incredible. Sarr's defensive playmaking is off the charts already and he's doing some nutty things on offense, too, even if the rough shooting percentages take some of the shine away. Bilal Coulibaly is breaking out, too, and the Wizards have a nice apparatus of up-and-comers like Corey Kispert and Kyshawn George making a real impact. And, lest we forget, the entertaining version of Jordan Poole has showed up this year. Flagg would be the franchise talent Washington lacks, and he'd transform the Wizards from an amusing tank effort to must-watch television.

1. Philadelphia 76ers

We are officially allowed to discuss the possibility of the current worst team in the NBA (2-12) getting Cooper Flagg. The Philadelphia 76ers, in theory, have far too much talent to stay at the bottom of the standings, but injuries continue to pile up and the vibes around the franchise are rancid. Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Tyrese Maxey are all max contract All-Stars and Jared McCain is an early frontrunner for Rookie of the Year. Plug Flagg into that group, and the Sixers might actually accomplish something for once.

Who holds the belt right now? A mini-NBA mock draft