Upside and Motor: NBA Draft stock watch as Cooper Flagg surges, Egor Demin craters

We are roughly midway through the college basketball season, which means the 2025 NBA Draft landscape is beginning to crystalize. We have a lot of tape on most of the top prospects.

Things can — and will — change. The process of scouting is constant evolution. New info breeds new opinions, new results. That said, it's becoming clearer by the day which prospects are serious, and which are less so. Early season noise is out the window. Some of our more knee-jerk reactions out of the gate have since been thoroughly rebutted. Such is the nature of the beast.

So, with 2025 fully underway, let's check in on some prospects who are surging (and others who are trending in the wrong direction). The last time we did this was around Thanksgiving.

2025 NBA Draft stock up, stock down midway through college basketball season

Cooper Flagg, F, Duke Blue Devils — STOCK UP

Cooper Flagg has taken the leap midway through his freshman season because of course he has. The 18-year-old was impactful out of the gate for Duke, but he has leveled up as a shot-maker in recent weeks. A lot of it is simple regression to the mean, as Flagg's 3-point shot was far below his standards early in the campaign.

His 42 points against Notre Dame over the weekend was an ACC freshman record. Flagg continues to seek out mismatches, weaponizing his size, burgeoning strength, and underrated touch. A serious three-level scorer who can shoulder a significant playmaking burden at 6-foot-9? Every NBA front office wants that player, especially when he defends as well as Flagg.

Nolan Traore, G, Saint-Quentin — STOCK DOWN

There's still plenty to love about Nolan Traore, who profiles as arguably the best playmaker in the draft. His positional size, quickness, and ball-handling chops present an appealing intersection of traits, especially when paired with such vision and creativity in the passing department.

The downside? He's just not scoring efficiently from anywhere on the floor. Traore has the burst and dexterity to pressure the rim, but he's not finishing through traffic. His touch is absent on floaters or mid-range pull-ups, and the 3s are clanking at a dire rate (23.2 percent). Teams will need to be patient with Traore's development as a scorer, especially if he's ever going to operate off-ball.

Danny Wolf, C, Michigan Wolverines — STOCK UP

I'll admit it: Danny Wolf is practically created in a lab to get me excited about a prospect. The hulking junior has been a true point center at times for Michigan, running pick-and-rolls at the top of the key, pushing the tempo off of rebounds, and dropping a few dazzling dimes every time he's on the floor. The Yale transfer is going to get NBA looks on the uniqueness of his skill set.

There are valid concerns about a high turnover rate and questionable touch indicators (59.1 percent on free throws), but Wolf's 3-point volume, on-ball wiggle, and playmaking creativity as a true big man, every bit of 7-foot and 255 pounds is something else. He has real potential as an offensive hub at the next level, even if he's more of a second-unit spark plug than a true focal point.

Boogie Fland, G, Arkansas Razorbacks — STOCK DOWN

The fruits of the John Calipari guard tree are prolific, but Boogie Fland is starting to bump up against the limitations of his frame. Listed at 6-foot-2 and 175 pounds, Fland is struggling to finish through contact or generate separation against SEC defenses (9-of-33 shooting over his last two games).

Even so, don't lose faith entirely. He's a deadly pull-up shooter with NBA range and one heck of a playmaker, plenty comfortable orchestrating the offense out of pick-and-rolls. Fland is distinct in his limitations, but his confidence never wanes and his skill level is undeniable. He should be able to run an NBA offense.

Noah Penda, F, Le Mans — STOCK UP

Noah Penda, the rangy 6-foot-8 wing, leads French LNB Elite in blocks and is second in steals. He has emerged as a top-tier defender in a competitive draft class, roaming for steals and cleaning up messes on the back line. His anticipation and nose for the basketball is virtually second to none among his peers.

The 18-year-old is not the buzziest international prospect, but he deserves more eyeballs. He's hitting 35.4 percent of his 3s, making sharp passes in the flow of the offense, and deploying his strength well on finishes at the rim. In terms of connective wings, Penda is the prototype for what NBA front offices covet nowadays.

Egor Demin, F, BYU Cougars — STOCK DOWN

After beating up on weak competition early in the season, Egor Demin has seen his production falter against better opponents. He also missed about a month with an ankle injury. The last time Demin shot better than 33 percent from the field was in late November.

Frankly, his sharp decline shouldn't come as a complete shock. Demin's early flourishes from 3-point range always felt a bit fluky. He occupies an extremely appealing archetype as a 6-foot-9 playmaker, but Demin's lack of strength and burst has led to difficulty creating and converting quality looks. He's still a dizzying passer with enough wiggle to get downhill and generate looks for teammates, but Demin's scoring looks borderline nonexistent these days. It's a concern.

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You're wrong to hold out on Jase Richardson due to usage

Jase Richardson is steadily gaining steam in NBA Draft circles. The Michigan State combo guard has quickly become a personal favorite of mine, doing all the small things to impact winning for a Spartans team that does not always feature its freshmen. It takes a special teenager to capture the heart of Tom Izzo.

Is Richardson's role all that robust? Not really. He's coming off the bench, with his usage limited in a rotation that leans heavily on three-guard lineups. Richardson is being deployed more as a connector than as a primary initiator. He's selective with his shot diet and comfortable working in the flow of the offense, rather than operating on his own wavelength.

That said, the indicators are extremely strong. Richardson is a plainly efficient scorer, averaging 9.7 points on .598/.467/.824 splits. He can fire 3s on the move, attack closeouts with a quick first step, and pull off impressive touch shots around the rim, often negating contests with gear shifts and finesse.

Richardson has not been asked to carry a hefty workload yet, but it's worth noting how he excels in a bit part. Presumably, his path to minutes at the next level is as a role player. Finding a 19-year-old with Richardson's sharp processing, selflessness, and basketball IQ is not an easy feat. They're few and far between. Richardson always seems to be making the right decision. His turnovers are low, the shooting is elite across the board (albeit on slight volume), and he's a heady defender, despite his lack of size at 6-foot-3.

My suggestion is to put stock into the strong numbers (he's second in BPM among high-major freshmen, trailing only Cooper Flagg) and hope that his high-feel approach translates to a more substantial workload down the road. We can't know for sure how Richardson will perform once he's empowered in a significant role, but there's no reason so far to believe it won't yield positive results.

ESPN and Bleacher Report don't have Richardson in their mock drafts yet. He is viewed by many as a 2026 prospect. I'm not sure he needs to wait that long.

Who are the five best defensive prospects in the 2025 NBA Draft?

Loaded question. Impossible to accurately answer. But, all the same, let's dive into this topic, endeavoring to balance immediate impact with long-term upside, while understanding that certain defensive archetypes (rim protector, for example) take precedent over others (the stout on-ball stopper who doesn't generate turnovers).

5. Thomas Sorber, C, Georgetown

Thomas Sorber is enjoying a revelatory freshman campaign for the Hoyas. His defensive profile stands out from the crowd. He leads the Big East in rebounding (8.5) while putting up 2.4 blocks and 1.3 steals in 30.4 minutes, operating nimbly on the back line. There were questions about Sorber's NBA projection going into the season, but his improved conditioning, fluidity, and instincts have yielded special results on both ends so far.

4. Noah Penda, F, Le Mans

The aforementioned Noah Penda, again, is worth seeking out. At 6-foot-8 and 225 pounds, he has the strength to handle physical matchups in the post and enough quickness to chase wings on the perimeter. His best moments on defense occur off-ball, though, with Penda's knack for bursting into passing lanes like a heat-seeking missile or blowing up shot attempts as a weak-side romer.

3. VJ Edgecombe, G, Baylor

VJ Edgecombe at No. 3 has the potential to age like milk. His defensive playmaking numbers are in rare air for a 6-foot-5 wing (2.4 steals, 0.9 blocks). Blessed with top-shelf athleticism, Edgecombe can cover the entire span of the court in a blink. He plays with a commendable fire, always making the extra effort to disrupt a pass or lock down the point of attack.

2. Khaman Maluach, C, Duke

At 7-foot-2 and 250 pounds, the appeal is on the surface with Duke's Khaman Maluach. The freshman still has a lot to learn, but he moves incredibly well in space and supplies a towering deterrent at the rim (1.1 blocks in 20.1 minutes). He plays awfully smart and hard for one of the less "polished" bigs in his class. It will require patience, but in time, Maluach could challenge for DPOY awards.

1. Cooper Flagg, Duke

Simple but undeniable. Cooper Flagg checks all the boxes on defense, listed 6-foot-9 and 205 pounds. He's a locked-in playmaker on the back line (1.6 steals, 1.3 blocks), often quarterbacking for Duke's scheme. Flagg covers ground with ease. He's a roving wrecking ball, willing to get physical and put his body on the line when the situation demands it. There just aren't 18-year-olds with Flagg's blend of athleticism, IQ, and motor very often. He is special, folks.

Who holds the belt right now? A mini-NBA mock draft