It's not really a civil war in US Soccer as the USL not only creates a Division I league in 2028, but is adopting a promotion/relegation system for all three of its divisions at that time. But it is a fissure. It's certainly a clear delineation of how two entities see the sport between USL and MLS. But they have more in common than they might think, as USL president Paul McDonough points out.
In an interview with The Guardian's Alexander Abnos, McDonough gets to the heart of a major issue that MLS, not just USL, has had for years but has shown no appetite to fix. To wit:
"I think the difference for us is fans: If they’re going to spend money and come to games, they want to see matches that matter, right? And when we looked at our competition calendar, we found that there were just a lot of what we would call dead rubber matches – you play and if you win or you lose, it just doesn’t matter. We consulted with [sports consultancy firm] Twentyfirst Group on this, but the idea is that getting more matches of consequence throughout your calendar gets fans more engaged. The last thing fans want to do is watch a game where the outcome doesn’t really have any bearing or effect on anything. That’s why playoffs are more important, right? There’s more jeopardy. Normally, when you see a team that’s out of the playoffs, they sell off players, or they trade players, and they just start to regroup for next year. Well, now you can’t do that, because even though you’re out of the top eight, you have to fight to stay out of the bottom. And I think that just gets more appealing for fans."
While this isn't the only reason MLS hasn't reached the TV numbers it would like, it is a big one. Its expansion of the playoffs a couple years ago is only proof that it doesn't recognize this. Sure, that might open up more meaningful games for a couple teams at the bottom of the playoff picture. But it only widens the middle, where more teams aren't playing for much from June or July on. It's hard to get fans excited about "seeding." Their seasons just kind of pass by until the fall.
The MLS is still missing a meaningful regular season
Teams that don't have much to play for exit the consciousness of everyone but fans of those teams. Last year's MLS Cup final, which has gained notoriety for how many people didn't watch it, was contested by the second-place team in the West and the seventh-place team in the East. It's likely that MLS fans didn't think about Red Bulls at all until they were just in the championship game. It's not like they were building momentum for weeks or months in the regular season. There wasn't a buzz for fans elsewhere to get attached to. Especially when the games are behind a paywall.
The other issue with the only games that matter late in the season are the ones being played by the teams at the bottom of the playoff picture means that the only games that matter are being played by the most mediocre teams. Now, sure, relegation means that important games are being played by the worst teams. But the stakes in that are so much higher with the possibility of being punted out altogether for the following season. If USL scraps playoffs at the top or keeps them exclusive, it also means that their best teams will be playing important games, too, instead of having their best teams just waiting around for the playoffs to start for two months.
MLS has always been stricken by the lack of stakes in so much of their regular season. Not only do games get worse in July and August due to the heat and the way that stifles movement and excitement, but that's only exacerbated by having very little on the line. There's just this handbrake on such a large swath of the season. Those games have little to no relevance for playoff teams seeded 1-5 or 1-6 or whatever. They just flow into the abyss.
What USL is betting is that fans want those games to feed into a season-long narrative. One day in the future, USL sees, say, fans of Union Omaha white-knuckling through the third to last game, teetering on relegation, rueing that game in June or July where they gave up an injury time goal to toss away one or two points. It all feeds into each other that way. The games matter instead of just passing. They build on each other. It'll be quite the juxtaposition from Minnesota United fans sweating out a couple vital organs on July 23 in St. Paul to watch a 1-0 over Dallas that no one will remember the details of six weeks later.
It's still a long shot that this will cause any change for MLS. Their advantages over USL in terms of attention and size are still bordering on insurmountable. But this is something a section (and very vocal) of fans have been calling for, wanting stakes on every match that's played. What a concept.