We're back and heading to TPC San Antonio for this week's Valero Texas Open, the site of a big win for Akshay Bhatia last year and the last PGA Tour event before the entirety of the golf world descends upon Augusta for The Masters. It's a good tee-to-green test that we see here every year, which is why guys like Bhatia, Corey Conners and many others have found success at this venue.
While you may not have seen picks for the Houston Open on FanSided.com last week while I was away on a pre-Masters vacation, we did finally start to get hot at the Houston Open when it came to my picks for the SI Golf betting panel as we hit both Min Woo Lee as an outright winner (+3500) and also a five-way chop for Keith Mitchell as the first-round leader (+6600). So we're now in the positive in a big way for the season and carrying some serious momentum into Augusta but also hopefully another good week in San Antonio.
Let's not belabor that for too long, though, and get right into our PGA Tour expert picks for the 2025 Valero Texas Open with a winner prediction, sleepers to watch and much more for the week.
Golf betting record in 2025: 10-36-0, +30.385 Units (+2.25 Units at Valspar, +47.2 Units at Houston) | One and Done Total for 2025: $5,366,631 (Sepp Straka at Valspar, $55,843; Min Woo Lee at Houston, $1.7 million)
Note: All lines are courtesy of BetMGM. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Valero Texas Open golf picks to Win, finish Top 10 and One and Done
Pick to win the Valero Texas Open: Gary Woodland (+5500, FanDuel)
Fresh off of tying Scottie Scheffler as the runner-up in Houston last week, I'm looking for Gary Woodland to actually find his way back to the winner's circle this week in San Antonio. His tee-to-green play has been stellar in similar conditions as he gained more than five strokes in that capacity in both Houston and Phoenix this season. Considering that he also has two Top 8 finishes to his credit at the Texas Open, the form, game and vibes suit him well and should put him right back into contention if he can keep it up for another week in the Lone Star State.
Top 10 pick for the Valero Texas Open: Daniel Berger (+260)
I can't escape the feeling that a big-time breakthrough is coming for Daniel Berger this season, if we aren't already in the midst of it. He hasn't finished worse than T25 in any of his last five starts and, over the last 24 rounds, ranks third in this field in total strokes gained while also being Top 10 in SG: Tee-to-Green. One thing that stands out clearly is his accuracy off of the tee, which plays a huge role in success at TPC San Antonio and should translate to another high finish to continue his stellar start to the 2025 season.
One and Done pick for the Valero Texas Open: Gary Woodland
Because this is the Valero Texas Open, we're not going to burn a huge name this week but I love Woodland so much with his fit at this course that it was a pretty easy call to take him. Even if he doesn't win, what he showed in Houston last week indicates that another strong finish should be incoming.
Sleeper picks to watch at the Valero Texas Open
Top 20 sleeper pick for the Valero Texas Open: Steven Fisk (+450)
Steven Fisk is quietly looking like someone who could be a name near the top of the leaderboard this week that makes golf fans wonder where he came from. After graduating from the Korn Ferry Tour last season, his game is suited to have a great week at TPC San Antonio. Over the last 12 round in this field, he's seventh in SG: Approach, ninth in Greens in Regulation, seventh in overall SG: Tee-to-Green, and second in Bogey Avoidance. I'm not quite sure he has the firepower to win with enough birdies this week, but his ball-striking and accuracy are in a place where he seems in good form to put together a strong finish.
Top 40 sleeper pick for the Valero Texas Open: Victor Perez (+120)
We're playing it a little safe with only putting Victor Perez as a Top 40 play, though you can get him at 100/1 outright like I did as a longshot for this week's SI Golf betting panel. He's been torching Par 5s of late, ranking first in the field in SG there over the last 12 rounds, but his tee-to-green play has also been on point, including ranking ninth in Greens in Regulation over that same span. He played well for three-fourths of the Valero Texas Open last year but was undone with a poor Saturday showing. A Top 40 play might protect from that but there's serious upside with him as he comes to this event in great form.