Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio offers a key opportunity for golfers to fine-tune their form before The Masters.
- Austin Smotherman's ball-striking could be a difference maker at this week's PGA Tour event.
- Sudarshan Yellamaraju is one of the public favorites, but there's a reason why we're fading him this week.
The Valero Texas Open is probably better known as the last PGA Tour event before The Masters, whether that's fair or not. But as we head to TPC San Antonio this week, it shouldn't be forgotten that this can be a fun and wildly variant event in the golf world. The Texas winds can wreak havoc, ball-striking (particularly approach play) comes to the forefront, and we get a pretty solid field with players trying to qualify for Augusta, or just simply get into form for the first major.
What that doesn't tell us, though, is who should be in our Valero Texas Open picks this week. You can check out my outrights and full analysis of the course, the field and other predictions on SI, but let's dive even deeper with more picks for One and Done, sleepers, and my overall favorite play for the week.
Favorite play at the Valero Texas Open
Austin Smotherman Top 20 incl. ties (+225)
Smotherman might've let the Cognizant slip through his fingers earlier this year, but the one thing you can't argue with is that he's absolutely flushing it this season, and that hasn't let up. Over the last 24 rounds, Smotherman is tops in the Valero Texas Open field in SG: Approach and fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green. Even better, he ranks 19th in Fairways Gained over that span, meaning he's putting himself in spots off the tee to take advantage of his fully elite approach play and ball-striking right now.
Ball-striking and approach play are always going to be highly valued in the golf prognostication world, and especially by me. But TPC San Antonio is even more strongly correlated to those stats than we see in normal weeks on the PGA Tour. While I do worry about Smotherman's overall win equity, especially with a hot-and-cold putter, his ball-striking is too good right now to not think that he can put himself in the Top 20 with some good value on it.
Sleepers and dark horses at TPC San Antonio
Jordan Smith (+6600, DraftKings)
A wonky short game got the best of Jordan Smith in Houston last week, but he was solo third at the Valspar the week before that, and the strength of his ball-striking can't go unnoticed in a week like this. He's fourth in Total Driving over the last 24 rounds — which takes into account distance and accuracy — but is also 15th in SG: Approach and 11th in SG: Tee-to-Green over that span. The short game is up and down, but there's enough with the tee-to-green profile to think he could be quite live this week.
Thorbjorn Olesen (+5600, DraftKings)
TPC San Antonio has often been a "horse for course" type of spot on the PGA Tour with the likes of Corey Conners and Charley Hoffman coming to mind. This week, that's why it feels only right to play Thorbjorn Olesen. In two starts over the last two years, Olesen has finished T14 and T5 at the Valero Texas Open. Something about the place suits his eye quite nicely, and now he enters this week while also being fifth in SG: Approach and eighth in SG: Tee-to-Green over the last 24 rounds. Marrying the course history with the ball-striking, you have to like his chances this week.
Public favorite I'm fading this week
Sudarshan Yellamaraju (+5800, DraftKings)
Make no mistake, the emergence of Sudarshan Yellamaraju is one of the best stories going in golf as the young Canadian has come seemingly out of nowhere to reel off high-end finishes (T5 at The Players, T6 in Houston). He's also done that with two things that should work for him at the Valero Texas Open this week, ranking ninth in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds, and as a lefty — a relevant note considering the last two winners in San Antonio have been southpaws.
Having said that, the way Yellamaraju has played these events is worth noting. He's largely been charging up the board after falling a bit behind the lead back early. To me, that seems like someone who is going to keep putting together good finishes with this level of ball-striking, but who the win equity might not be there for just yet. For the most-tipped golfer of the week, I'm going to stay away from any outright market, and might just protect myself entirely from a crash back to Earth by avoiding Yellamaraju altogether.
Valero Texas Open One and Done pick
Austin Smotherman
I know, I'm a bit late to the game with One and Done due to some circumstances largely out of my hands. But we're back in the fold, and I'll offer my top option, and some secondary options as well just in case you had to burn my top pick before I re-entered the conversation. But we're rocking with Smotherman this week. Again, I think the ball-striking gives him such a high floor in an event like this, and while he may not be able to get a win across the finish line, he should bring home a solid amount of prize money.
Other potential plays: Thorbjorn Olesen, Ryo Hisatsune
One massive longshot to win the Valero Texas Open
Andrew Putnam (+15000, DraftKings)
Who doesn't like to sprinkle on someone way down the odds board? That's where we're going to find Andrew Putnam this week as our favorite major longshot of the week. The ball-striking isn't necessarily where you'd like it to me, no question, but his short game is dialed — and he's even better on slow greens, which we'll see at TPC San Antonio. Furthermore, this is one of the most accurate drivers on tour. If he can rebound to his early-March levels of approach play, he has the ability to finish off scoring and make a run at the top of the leaderboard.
Note: All lines are courtesy of BetMGM unless noted. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.