After THE PLAYERS gave us an extra three holes of golf, we're staying in Florida on the PGA Tour as we head to the Valspar Championship. Despite the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook being uber-popular among golf fans, this tournament hasn't always drawn the best field. That's not the case this week, however, with guys like Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Tommy Fleetwood and many others in the field.
We know the deal when it comes to the Copperhead Course and the Valspar Championship. Even beyond the terrifying Snake Pit, this is a course that demands accuracy all over and the ability to limit damage. Accuracy, ball-striking and scrambling will all be key, as is navigating the Bermuda greens. Making that more complicated is a potentially big split between tee times and waves as the AM/PM wave for Thursday/Friday could miss out on some wind others won't be so fortunate to.
That caused a big odds shift on Tuesday when the tee times were released, but we're still attacking the board. With that, let's get into our 2025 Valspar Championship predictions with PGA Tour expert picks for a winner, Top 10 and some sleepers that you should sprinkle on as well.
Golf betting record in 2025: 6-33-0, -20.065 Units (-4.5 Units at THE PLAYERS) | One and Done Total for 2025: $3,610,788 (Scottie Scheffler at THE PLAYERS, $240,250)
Note: All lines are courtesy of BetMGM. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Valspar Championship golf picks to Win, finish Top 10 and One and Done
Pick to win the Valspar Championship: Sepp Straka (+1600, FanDuel)
Sepp Straka is hot, y'all. He has five Top 17 finishes in his last six starts and the numbers paint a picture that's perfect for him at Innisbrook. He's sixth in SG: Approach and Top 10 for both SG: Par 3 and SG: Par 5 over his last 24 rounds. Throw in the fact that he's a stellar driver of the golf ball in terms of accuracy, and he's made right now to have a monster week at the Copperhead course. With how much he's been around the top of the leaderboard, he's due for a win and I think he gets it this week.
Top 10 pick for the Valspar Championship: Alex Smalley (+350)
Speaking of golfers that are hotter than you might realize, Alex Smalley also fits that bill. Even with a middling finish to his tournament at THE PLAYERS, he's finished T21 or better five times in his last six events. His approach play hasn't been otherworldly by any means but he's getting the job done, sitting 30th in Greens in Regulation over the last 36 rounds while being both above-average in length off the tee but Top 20 in accuracy. With that and his ability to scramble, I think he's a great fit right now for a nice week at the Valspar.
One and Done pick for the Valspar Championship: Sepp Straka
For everything mentioned above, I have to go with Straka as the One and Done pick. There is a slight risk that he continues this form throughout the season and pops off at an event with a much larger purse, but I'm pretty confident in what he's about to do this week at Valspar.
Sleeper picks to watch at the Valspar Championship
Top 20 sleeper pick for the Valspar Championship: Viktor Hovland (+225)
Viktor Hovland looks nothing like one of the best young players in the world lately, which is wild since that's what he clearly was not long ago. I'm trying to beat the return of Hovland a bit here, though, in a spot where he's had success with a T3 and T33 in two starts. Hovland has now gained strokes on approach in four straight events despite three missed cuts but also got boned with the driver at THE PLAYERS — but the good news is that his short game was just regular bad, not a disaster. I think the trends are heading in the right way for Hovland, so I'll take a swing.
Top 40 sleeper pick for the Valspar Championship: Henrik Norlander (+200)
Rather than taking a longshot flier this week on a sleeper, I'm going deep down the board for a Top 40 play with Henrik Norlander. He's not long off the tee but is solidly accurate, which is all you need on the Copperhead Course. More importantly, he's been dialed on approach, gaining strokes in five of his last six measured events, leading him to ranking third in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds in this field. With that and the fact that he's also fourth in scrambling over that span, I like for him to show out well this week.