Vegas is laughing in the face of Jed Hoyer’s supposedly aggressive offseason

He finally did it. Jed Hoyer pushed his chips in.

After back-to-back seasons of 83 wins, the Chicago Cubs made a blockbuster swing — a trade to tangibly move the needle in a wide-open NL Central. Hoyer dealt Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski and Cam Smith to the Houston Astros for Kyle Tucker, a 27-year-old All-Star who ranks among the very best position players in the sport.

Tucker is exactly what Cubs fans have clamored for. He finished last season with 23 home runs and 4.7 WAR in just 78 games, battling through injuries to deliver MVP-level impact to the Astros. With three All-Stars and a World Series under his belt, Tucker's resume is already beyond reproach. He is going to impact winning in a significant way for the Cubs.

That said, it's fair to wonder how "all-in" this offseason has actually been from Hoyer. Tucker is great, but the Cubs didn't add him in a vacuum. Chicago dealt an All-Star in Paredes, then traded Cody Bellinger to create space in the outfield. That is two key bats gone to accommodate Tucker, whose long-term future still hangs in the balance.

Aside from Tucker, it has been a fairly quiet winter for the Cubs. Another trade with the Astros brought in veteran closer Ryan Pressly, but he's over the hill, so to speak. Chicago courted Roki Sasaki, but was never seriously under consideration for the Japanese ace. There has been talk of the Cubs adding another top-shelf pitcher, such as Dylan Cease, but nothing has materialized.

Las Vegas, for what it's worth, does not appear very confident in the Cubs' ability to contend.

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Cubs aren't viewed as a legitimate World Series threat in betting odds

Chicago has +3000 odds to win the 2025 World Series, per FanDuel Sportsbook. That sits 14th in MLB, behind teams like Texas, Minnesota, San Diego, and Detroit. All those teams are shrouded in uncertainty, so it's clear confidence in the Cubs is... limited, to say the least.

The Cubs needed an elite slugging force in the middle of the lineup, which Tucker provides, but the Cubs sacrificed a lot to get him there. Then, Chicago did nothing to boost the lineup around Tucker, while questions around his bullpen remain unanswered. Craig Counsell is a widely respected manager, but the Cubs' pitching staff just did not carry its weight last season. Is Pressly the answer? Probably not.

Might the Cubs keep adding? It's possible. Chicago has been in the mix for Alex Bregman, with some even viewing them as tentative favorites. Wrigley Field does not align with Bregman's hitting chart, but he's still a proven postseason performer and the kind of dependable, well-rounded bat this lineup needs more of. If the Cubs can upgrade Jon Berti at third base to Alex Bregman at third base, these odds might shift in their favor.

That said, Chicago is already planting the seeds for Bregman alternatives. We know this song and dance. The Cubs struggle to spend at the highest level in free agency, and when they do, Hoyer typically needs to make concessions elsewhere. This Chicago front office is defined by half-measures and half-baked rosters. So, for as much credit as Hoyer deserves for getting the Tucker trade across the finish line, his inability to follow it up with equally ambitious moves could doom the Cubs once more.