There's a year 2 bump theory for Vic Fangio's defenses: The idea being that they play better in their second season. It makes a little bit of sense because it’s a complicated scheme, and sometimes there can be a learning curve with those kinds of things. Fortunately, the 2024 Philadelphia Eagles jumped that learning curve during their Week 5 bye week, and then went on to put every other offense through absolute hell for the next 17 games.
Fangio has been a defensive coordinator for a long, long time. He’s dealt with almost every defensive roster makeup that you can deal with. And that means you can look back at what he’s done in the past and see if that year 2 jump is real, and if it is: How will the Eagles deal with it in 2025?
What Fangio’s Year 2 track record really shows
These are the numbers for the defenses in their first two seasons with Fangio as either the defensive coordinator or the head coach over the past 30 seasons. To make everything equal, when I got the numbers from ProFootballReference.com, I only looked at the defenses’ scoring (points against), total yards allowed, passing yards allowed, rushing yards allowed, and red zone touchdown percentage.
That seems sufficient, especially since advanced stats and whatnot don’t go all the way back to 1995, or even 2011.
The obvious caveat here is that there are a disgusting number of variables; it’s football. The best way to make everything equal is to ignore those variables for every team.
Panthers’ defensive coordinator: 1995-1996
Stat | '95 (per game)- Rank | '96 (per game) -Rank |
|---|---|---|
Points Allowed | 325 (20.3) - 8th | 218 (13.6) - 2nd |
Rush Yards Allowed | 1,576 (98.5) - 10th | 1,562 (97.6) - 8th |
Pass Yards Allowed | 3,451 (215.7) - 14th | 3,214 (200.9) - 12th |
Total Yards Allowed | 5,027 (314.2) - 7th | 4,776 (298.5) - 10th |
When you’re looking back this far, you take everything with a grain of salt. Not only was this Fangio’s first time ever being a defensive coordinator, but he was also just 16 years into his coaching career (2025 will be his 46th year).
On top of that, 1995 was the Panthers’ very first season as a franchise, and their head coach was Dom Capers, a defensive coach. Not only was this not a pure or even modern Fangio scheme, but it was brand spanking new to everyone.
There was definitely overall growth in Fangio’s second year. Even though they had a lower ranking in total yards, they allowed fewer yards. This is a good sign.
Colts’ defensive coordinator: 1999-2000
Stat | '99 (per game)- Rank | '00 (per game) -Rank |
|---|---|---|
Points Allowed | 333 (20.8) - 17th | 326 (20.4) - 15th |
Rush Yards Allowed | 1,715 (107.2) - 18th | 1,935 (120.9) - 25th |
Pass Yards Allowed | 3,506 (219.1) - 19th | 3,422 (213.9) - 18th |
Total Yards Allowed | 5,221 (326.3) -15th | 5,357 (334.8) - 21st |
Red Zone Conv. | 47.9% - 17th | 54.9% - 22nd |
Fangio spent 11 seasons (1984 to 1994) as a defensive assistant and linebackers coach with Jim Mora Sr. when they were with the Philadelphia/Baltimore Stars (USFL) and the New Orleans Saints. In the 1999 season, they reunited with the Indianapolis Colts. This time, Fangio was Mora’s defensive coordinator. That means that once again, Fangio was not the sole mind behind the defense.
By the numbers here, the Colts' defense was a little worse, but not by anything crazy. They had to do a little bit of a revamp on defense between the two seasons. They used all seven of their draft picks to grab defensive players, and none of them really ended up being contributors that season.
Texans’ defensive coordinator: 2002-2003
Stat | '02 (per game)- Rank | '03 (per game) -Rank |
|---|---|---|
Points Allowed | 356 (22.3) - 20th | 280 (23.8) - 27th |
Rush Yards Allowed | 2,089 (130.6) -28th | 2,370 (148.1) - 31st |
Pass Yards Allowed | 3,141 (196.3) - 10th | 3,712 (232) - 31st |
Total Yards Allowed | 5,230 (326.9) - 16th | 6,082 (380.1) - 31st |
Red Zone Conv. | 46.2% - 8th | 44.2% - 8th |
2002 was the Texans’ first season as a franchise, and just like the last time he took a job as a DC for an expansion team, his head coach was Dom Capers.
This is by far Fangio's worst first two-year stint. The only spot where they got better was in the red zone conversion percentage; they went from allowing 46.2% to 44.2%. The fun (read: not fun) thing is that in 2002, it was 23 of 52, and in 2003, it was 24 of 52… so that’s not exactly ‘growth’.
Some of it was because it was a young team and franchise, some of it was because they had absolutely zero dudes on their defense (no Pro-Bowlers), some of it was because they had a total of 19 sacks on the season, and some of it was because they were on the field forever (offense ran 896 plays, defense was on the field for 1,054 plays). They were a really, really, talentless and terrible defense.
49ers’ defensive coordinator: 2011-2012
Stat | '11 (per game)- Rank | '12 (per game) -Rank |
|---|---|---|
Points Allowed | 229 (14.3) - 2nd | 273 (17.1) - 2nd |
Rush Yards Allowed | 1,236 (77.3) - 1st | 1,507 (94.2) - 4th |
Pass Yards Allowed | 3,695 (230.9) - 16th | 3,203 (200.2) - 4th |
Total Yards Allowed | 4,931 (308.2) - 4th | 4,710 (294.4) - 4th |
Red Zone Conv. | 41.2% - 4th | 61.1% - 28th |
In 2010, Fangio was with Jim Harbaugh’s defensive coordinator at Stanford. In 2011, they both went to San Francisco. This was Fangio’s first time owning an NFL defense, and buddy… woah.
The 61.1% allowed red zone conversion rate is a little misleading here because the defense also saw the fewest red zone trips in the entire NFL, just 36. In those 36 trips, they allowed touchdowns on 22 of them, which is the eighth fewest.
All in all, that defense got better in the second year. You’ll happily allow 17 more rushing yards per game if it means you allow 30 fewer passing yards per game.
Bears’ defensive coordinator: 2015-2016
Stat | '15 (per game)- Rank | '16 (per game) -Rank |
|---|---|---|
Points Allowed | 397 (24.8) - 20th | 399 (24.9) - 24th |
Rush Yards Allowed | 1,934 (120.9) - 23rd | 1,950 (121.9) - 27th |
Pass Yards Allowed | 3,593 (224.6) - 4th | 3,598 (224.9) - 7th |
Total Yards Allowed | 5,527 (345.4) - 14th | 5,548 (346.7) - 15th |
Red Zone Conv. | 60% | 52.5% - 11th |
The best way to describe Fangio’s first two years with the Bears is that they didn’t get better, rather than saying that they got worse.
It didn’t help that the 2016 defense got absolutely decimated by injuries; they had 12 guys who missed multiple games. Six of those injuries were on the defensive line, and three were in the secondary.
If you’re trying to get guys comfortable in a defense, having those guys for the entire season is pretty important.
Broncos’ head coach: 2019-2020
Stat | '19 (per game)- Rank | '20 (per game) -Rank |
|---|---|---|
Points Allowed | 316 (19.8) - 10th | 446 (27.9) - 25th |
Rush Yards Allowed | 1,738 (111.4) - 16th | 2,080 (130) - 25th |
Pass Yards Allowed | 3,609 (225.6) - 11th | 3,807 (237.9) - 16th |
Total Yards Allowed | 5,392 (337) - 12th | 5,887 (367.9) - 21st |
Red Zone Conv. | 39.1% - 1st | 47.5% - 1st |
It’s pretty clear that the 2020 defense was significantly worse than the 2019 defense. A lot of that was once again due to injuries. Seven-time All-Pro, eight-time Pro Bowler, and the most recent defensive player to win Super Bowl MVP, Von Miller, was the star of that team — and he had a season-ending injury less than a week before the season started.
There were a whole lot of other guys who missed time because of injuries and because of Covid, too. It was another season where there was no consistency on the defense, and it ended up not really being the second year of familiarity like they probably had hoped.
Eagles’ defensive coordinator: 2024-
Stat | '24 (per game)- Rank |
|---|---|
Points Allowed | 303 (17.8) - 2nd |
Rush Yards Allowed | 2,961 (174.2) - 1st |
Pass Yards Allowed | 1,771 (104.2) - 10th |
Total Yards Allowed | 4,732 (278.3) - 1st |
Red Zone Conv. | 50% - 6th |
Can the Eagles defense stay elite in 2025?
There are two takeaways here: the first being that the Eagles' setup is very similar to Fangio’s setup with the 2011 49ers. He has a roster that is chock-full of talent, and they performed astonishingly well in the first season.
The second is that the jump in the second year of Fangio's defense is real. I’m sure if you’re actually on the defense, being comfortable with his defense is huge, but the numbers don’t make it seem as overblown as it’s made out to be.
I have a new take after looking at all of this: Year two of the Fangio scheme isn’t based on how comfortable players are with the defense; it’s more about not being uncomfortable. There’s a difference between not knowing what decision to make and knowing what the wrong decision is.
When Fangio had his bad second seasons with teams, it was partially because the players were bad, but also because the guys who performed well the first season weren’t there for the second season, and other uncomfortable guys had to play.
The Eagles are going to have at least four new starters on defense, and they are in all three areas. Last season, when everything clicked, it clicked for everyone at the same time, and it really clicked. You have to think Quinyon Mitchell, Cooper DeJean, and Zack Baun, who all just had phenomenal years, will be able to get the new guys on the same page.
It’s hard to imagine that the Eagles are going to have the best defense in the NFL for two straight years… But even if they regress, and as long as the key players are there, there’s a very real chance that the Eagles go back-to-back seasons with a defense that is at least in the top five.