I'll be damned.
Despite tying for the NFL's second-best record in 2024 and improving their roster this offseason, the Minnesota Vikings are being slept on. At least by ESPN's Seth Walder, who has them ranked 15th in his first rendition of the 2025 Football Power Index (FPI) ratings.
Walder ostensibly believes the Vikings overachieved last season. But not only is he overlooking Minnesota, he's straight-up disrespecting them. Regardless, the chip on the Purple Gang's shoulder only grows larger after seeing this.
Vikings get some extra motivation from ESPN's latest FPI rankings
"If there is a curveball, it's that Minnesota ranks only 15th after going 14-3 in 2024," Walder said. "But the Vikings relied on their defense -- which ranked third in EPA per play -- last season while ranking a mediocre 15th on offense. And even though Brian Flores remains as defensive coordinator, defensive success is hard to replicate."
Why can't Minnesota's stop unit be dominant again? Their Pro Bowl edge rushing tandem of Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard isn't going anywhere. Rising second-year outside linebacker Dallas Turner should take a step forward to living up to his first-round potential.
Moreover, the Vikings added the interior disruption they've been desperately searching for in recent seasons à la accomplished veterans Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave. Their new-look defensive tackle duo should make life easier for Flores and Co.
Some may point to safety Camryn Bynum's free agency departure to the Indianapolis Colts as a concern in the secondary. But Josh Metellus presents a seamless in-house replacement who's arguably an upgrade. Pro Football Focus (PFF) touted the latter as the superior pass-rushing, run-defending and overall talent, though the former was slightly better in coverage.
Vikings are set up for the long haul
On the other side of the ball, Walder also has his worries about Minnesota swapping out quarterback Sam Darnold for the "unknown" J.J. McCarthy.
"While he might possess more upside than last year's starter, Sam Darnold, McCarthy's downside is almost certainly lower."
The ceiling versus floor argument between Darnold and McCarthy is fair, but no one foresaw the new Seattle Seahawks signal-caller thriving in Minnesota. The Vikings didn't expect it either, considering they signed him to a one-year, $10 million contract last March. Minnesota head coach Kevin O'Connell, AKA the Quarterback Whisperer, has proven he can make lemonade out of lemons with virtually anyone under center.
Besides, McCarthy will have the luxury of operating behind a revamped offensive line that's bigger and better. The additions of prized free-agent guard Will Fries and four-time Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly are massive (literally and figuratively). Vikings stalwart left tackle Christian Darrisaw will also be healthy after suffering a season-ending torn ACL last year.
Several things go into Walder's FPI ranks. In the preseason, it's "primarily based on win totals from the betting market in conjunction with each team's schedule," the analyst wrote. However, "factors such as the difference between a team's starting and backup quarterback and a special teams rating that incorporates specific kickers" also matter. It's not a perfect formula, but ESPN simulates the year "thousands of times," and voila, the projections are born!
But apparently, Walder's models seemingly believe what we saw from the Vikings this past campaign was merely a facade, which could age poorly.