Eye-popping Vlad Guerrero Jr. estimate should have Blue Jays fans waving goodbye

The Toronto Blue Jays offseason took a step in the right direction when they signed Anthony Santander to a multiyear deal. Despite evidence to the contrary, Jays executive Ross Atkins claimed signing Santander was always their Plan A.

Yet, Toronto was also interested in the likes of Juan Soto, Roki Sasaki, Blake Snell, Max Fried, Corbin Burnes and more. They didn't land any of those players before pivoting to Santander who – while a tremendous player in his own right – is not the biggest of splashes.

Atkins and the Blue Jays could save their winter with one simple move, however, and that would be extending Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Vladdy is reportedly interested in staying in Toronto long term, but he also holds all the leverage. The $340 million deal the Blue Jays offered him already will not cut it.

Guerrero Jr. had 6.2 WAR last season along with 30 home runs and a .323 batting average. His advanced statistics, at least at the plate, are just as strong. Guerrero Jr. is a four-time All-Star and a two-time silver slugger. He's also only entering his age-26 season.

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. contract projection isn't good news for Blue Jays

Unfortunately for the Jays, the best comparison for a Guerrero Jr. contract is the Juan Soto deal. Soto received a $765 million contract. Atkins and the Jays don't have that kind of money.

Per a contract projection at CBS Sports, they expect Guerrero Jr. to ask for around $585 million on a 13-year contract. Of course, that overall sum could change if Vladdy is open to a shorter-term deal, but if he wants the kind of security Soto got with the Mets, the Blue Jays will have to increase their offer.

Guerrero Jr. has said he'd want to sign an extension prior to reporting to spring training. That is only a few weeks away. If Vladdy and the Blue Jays can't agree to a new deal before then, Guerrero Jr. is content playing out the final year of his contract.

The ball is in his court, after all, as Guerrero Jr. would reset the market in his own right if he hits the open market following a season similar to his 2024 splits. That is the risk Guerrero Jr. is taking, but one look at his baseball-reference page should give him confidence to do just that.