The Toronto Blue Jays tried and failed to agree on a contract extension with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. before his self-imposed deadline of the start of spring training. Guerrero Jr. recently revealed the terms of his counteroffer, which was just shy of $600 million.
As great as Vladdy can be at the dish, he likely won't age well defensively. He also has three sub-two WAR campaigns in six seasons, including one of those in 2023. Much of that can be traced to his inability to make much of an impact on the basepaths or defensively.
Guerrero Jr. has played some third base and first base, but projects to spend more time at the latter position and designated hitter as he nears 30 years old, barring a massive change in approach. That is not a position worth spending $600 million on, as the best rosters in baseball are built up the middle. Every front office knows this, including the one led by Blue Jays executive Ross Atkins.
For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray's work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter and join the discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB season.
Blue Jays executive Ross Atkins could flip Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to the Yankees
Now, had Guerrero Jr. been willing to sign a contract closer to $450 million or $500 million, the Blue Jays would've listened. He is the face of their franchise, after all, and one of the best power bats in the game today. Toronto has missed out on star after star, and lucked into developing one of their own. Why let him walk, even if it costs a pretty penny? Just last season Guerrero Jr. had a 6.2 WAR and finished sixth in AL MVP voting, all while hitting 30 home runs. On his career, Guerrero Jr. has three top-10 AL MVP seasons, including 2021, when he finished second. He has made four straight AL All-Stars teams.
Guerrero Jr. is no slouch, but the contract Juan Soto received just this past winter diluted the market. There may be a team willing to give Vladdy $600 million, but it is not the Blue Jays, which opens up an intriguing possibility. Of all the teams in need of corner infield help, the New York Yankees may be among the worst off. Paul Goldschmidt is relatively stable at first base, while DJ LeMahieu (when healthy) leaves a lot to be desired.
Trading a franchise player to your division rival is an easy way for Atkins to get fired, but if the prospect package in return is right, there's little reason for the Blue Jays to play hard to get at the deadline – that is assuming they are out of the AL East race.
Much like last winter with Soto, the Yankees will likely be involved in the Guerrero Jr. chase either way in 2025, forcing Blue Jays fans to face that reality anyway. What is a few months of a leg up in exchange for elite prospect capital?
The door is open for the Yankees, if the AL East shakes out like most pundits think it will. Yet, as we've learned time and time again, the pundits aren't always correct.