On April 9, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. agreed to a 14-year, $500 million contract extension that figured to make him a Toronto Blue Jay for life. That night, the Jays polished off a 2-1 win over the Boston Red Sox, their third straight victory to improve to 8-5 on the season. After a winter of extreme discontent, things were finally looking up north of the border.
Almost two weeks later, it turns out that a great news cycle can't actually last for162 games. Eventually, the good vibes wear off, and you need to get back to playing baseball. Vladdy is doing his part on that front, with a 142 OPS+ and as many walks as strikeouts through his team's first 22 games. Everything else in Toronto, however, looks suspiciously similar to what got the Jays to a crisis point in the first place.
That became abundantly clear over the weekend, when the team gave up a combined 16 runs in two ugly losses to the Seattle Mariners. The Jays are now sitting at 12-10, their pitching staff is in tatters, the front office hasn't been able to develop meaningful depth and, all of a sudden, Guerrero Jr. has to be wondering just what he's hitched the rest of his career to.
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Blue Jays' dysfunction could have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. regretting his extension already
On paper at least, Toronto's rotation looked to be pretty solid entering the 2025 season. Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt were a sturdy trio up top, Bowden Francis was coming off a breakout 2024 campaign and, if healthy, Max Scherzer still seemed to have plenty left in the tank as a No. 4 or No. 5 starter.
Unfortunately, it didn't take long for things to unravel. Scherzer is already hurt, as everyone could've predicted, and the team's attempts to replace him have proved disastrous: Easton Lucas enjoyed a couple of strong starts earlier this year, but his ERA has since ballooned north of 7, and he got shelled by Seattle over the weekend.
The problem? The Jays don't have a ton of viable options to replace him right now, the product of years and years of poor pitching development. They optioned Lucas back to the Minors on Monday, but it's unclear just who their fifth starter will be in the near term.
Blue Jays option Easton Lucas and recall Josh Walker
— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) April 21, 2025
This means Jays will have to figure out their 5th rotation spot vs. NYY this weekend. Maybe Paxton Schultz? Or maybe push front four SP a little harder here and skip 5th spot.
Which, for all the attention on Vladdy and Bo Bichette and Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani, has been this organization's real bugaboo. Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins simply have not been able to churn out quality homegrown big leaguers since Alex Anthopoulos left town, instead resorting to patching holes through free agency.
That worked okay for a while, but at a certain point, not even stars like Guerrero Jr. and Bichette could mask the talent deficiency — and no payroll in the world is hefty enough to put out every fire over a long season. Unless Toronto can figure out a way to get better results from its draft picks and international amateur signings, they're going to continue to lag behind. And right now, Shapiro and Atkins haven't earned that benefit of the doubt.
Which should have Guerrero Jr. already eying that contract he signed just weeks ago. There are no opt-outs, and no deferred money; he and Toronto are married to each other now, for richer or for poorer. Vladdy has already seen what a full competitive cycle from this front office looks like, and the results weren't pretty. He has to be wondering what he's gotten himself into, and whether this team has what it takes to give him something more deserving of his talents.