The Pittsburgh Pirates are in a pickle. The team stinks. We can call a spade a spade. This Pirates roster is not built to contend and, more concerningly, there's no indication that ownership or the front office plan to meaningfully change things in the near future.
There is no more damning pair of stats in baseball than Paul Skenes' record (3-5) and ERA (2.44). Pittsburgh's 22-year-old fireballer is the current odds-on favorite to win the NL Cy Young award and he has lost half his starts so far this season. That almost does not compute.
A prime example came this past week, when Skenes pitched eight innings of one-run baseball against the red-hot Philadelphia Phillies in what turned into a 1-0 Phillies victory. He pitched a complete game for the Pirates, gave up three hits and a single run on less than 100 pitches, and took the L.
That is indefensible, and it's a feeling Skenes is far too familiar with at this point. The Pirates have no real intent to spend more money and field a better roster, which means the idea of trading Skenes for max value has already begun to percolate in MLB circles. How much would it take?
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Pirates should probably start thinking about trading Paul Skenes, but what is the price tag?
Skenes is under contract through 2029, so the Pirates will probably put this off until the last second, when Skenes' value has declined and the disappointment has stewed for years. The smart move might be flipping him now, when he's an unvarnished 22-year-old megastar. Many believe Skenes can eventually become the first $500 or $600 million pitcher in free agency. Pittsburgh ain't paying that — and maybe his next team won't either. Best to let them trade for him when there's a four-year window, just in case.
FanSided's MLB insider Robert Murray makes the case:
"The reality, however, is that Nutting is bound to waste Skenes’ prime unless he signficantly increases his spending," he writes. "It’s clear, watching the Pirates’ product this season, it’s an organization that has little hope. And if that means trading Skenes to maximize his career and jumpstart yet another Pirates rebuild, then it’s something that the organization should consider."
As for what it would take, the best (recent) point of comparison is probably Juan Soto, who netted San Diego's first, second, third, fourth and 14th-ranked prospects in a trade from the Washington Nationals in his age-23 season. Soto was fresh off a second-place MVP finish and won the World Series in 2019, just his second MLB season.
Some will argue that a top-shelf position player is more valuable than a top pitcher, which is true. But Soto was also a couple years closer to the expiration of his rookie contract. The Padres turned around and traded Soto (again) after just one full season with "San Diego" across his chest. A team trading for Skenes would get three full seasons (2026, 2027, 2028) until the need to earnestly consider his future arises.
The Nationals' core right now is basically the Juan Soto return package. CJ Abrams, Mackenzie Gore and James Wood were all sent over from San Diego. Their No. 8 prospect, Robert Hassell, was the Padres' top-ranked prospect when the trade happened. Their No. 10 prospect, Jarlin Susana, was San Diego's 14th-ranked prospect a few years ago.
Pittsburgh would need a similar boost to its farm system to consider a Skenes trade. The Pirates would need a future ace (or two) to replace Skenes, as well as several offensive prospects with a chance to boost Pittsburgh's anemic lineup — ideally in the near future. Factor in Skenes' unique star-power and the financial benefits of adding him to your clubhouse, and the Pirates can ask for a truly major haul.
This probably won't happen any time soon, though, even if it should. Pittsburgh is going to keep wasting Skenes' astronomic talent because that is how the Pirates operate.