Entering the season, New York Mets fans expected the team to be led by its offense while hoping the pitching could simply survive. Instead, the Mets have been led by their pitching all season, with their offense lagging behind.
At 34-21 this formula has worked so far, but with the Mets ranking just 13th in the majors in runs scored, fans are wondering what's really going on with this offense? I mean, 13th in runs scored isn't bad, but with the names in this lineup regularly, the Mets should not be behind teams like the San Francisco Giants and Seattle Mariners when it comes to scoring runs. Fans are frustrated, and it's hard to blame them.
Ultimately, there are several reasons why this offense hasn't come close to meeting expectations at the dish.
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The Mets have been one of MLB's worst teams in hitting with runners in scoring position
Hitting home runs is the most efficient way for a team to score a run, but hitting a ball over the fence is easier said than done. With that in mind, stringing hits together, particularly with runners in scoring position, has to happen at a high clip for teams to score enough runs to win a given game. Unfortunately, the Mets have failed miserably in these big spots.
The Mets have had plenty of baserunners. They currently rank seventh in the majors with a .329 on-base percentage and ninth with 567 plate appearances with runners in scoring position. Unfortunately, they rank 28th in the majors with a .211 average and 24th with an 84 WRC+ with runners in scoring position. The only two teams ranked below them in both categories are the Texas Rangers and the Chicago White Sox, two of the five lowest-scoring teams in the majors.
Seeing the Mets struggle this mightily after ranking ninth in average (.265) and second in WRC+ (130) with runners in scoring position last season has been jarring.
Objectively, some of this can be chalked down to luck. There's absolutely a randomness that comes with hitting with runners in scoring position. Still, the Mets have hit poorly with runners in scoring position virtually all season long. The season is now over two months old. At some point, it's more than just a blip. It's a concerning trend. It's one that's going to have to evaporate if the Mets want to go on the World Series run they expect to.
It feels as if the team's approach has something to do with its rough performance in big spots.
Eric Chavez is contributing to the Mets' offensive struggles
Mets hitting coach Eric Chavez made it clear that he was not going to worry about things like launch angle. He does not believe that anything that happens after contact is made can be attributed to anything other than luck, so he does not want to focus on that. Unfortunately, this approach has not paid off at all.
In addition to posting a 44 percent ground ball rate (eighth in the majors), the Mets only pull the ball 37.8 percent of the time, the third-lowest mark in the league. For speedsters like Chandler Simpson, this approach can work. For a vast majority of players, though, hitting the ball a ton and not pulling the baseball is not a good thing. This Mets team isn't built to just try to find holes in the infield or beat out slow dribblers.
The Mets are built to slug. Pete Alonso leads the NL in home runs since debuting back in 2019, but he's on pace for just 32 home runs this season. That'd be his lowest home run total in a full season. Juan Soto hit 41 home runs last season, but he's on pace to hit just 23 this season. Mark Vientos hit 27 home runs last season, but he's on pace to hit 17 this season.
Alonso and Soto both have ground ball rates above their career averages, and Vientos is hitting the ball nowhere near as hard as he did last season.
Mets are focusing on making contact more than doing damage
The Mets have struck out the seventh-fewest amount of times in the majors, and have even fanned just 18 percent of the time with runners in scoring position, the second-lowest rate in the sport. While putting the ball into play is obviously a good thing, the Mets are sacrificing making contact for doing damage. This can be shown in one stark graphic from Eno Sarris of The Athletic ($).
Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, and Mark Vientos, three of the Mets' best hitters, are among the 11 MLB hitters with the steepest drop-off in bat speed. This might not be the end-all-be-all, but these hitters not swinging the bat as hard as they did last season has likely played a role in power dips. With these players in or around their primes, it feels as if this is more of an approach issue than a physical issue.
Choosing to just "keep things simple" instead of trying to do as much damage as possible at the plate has hurt this team. Again, it truly feels as if their offensive struggles can be attributed to an approach issue more than just bad luck.
Ultimately, I do expect this offense to get going to an extent, especially with runners in scoring position. The players on this team are too talented to struggle like this all season, and there is some randomness to their struggles. Still, their approach has to change for this offense to come close to meeting its potential. Hopefully, changes are made sooner rather than later.