The task in front of Matt Campbell and the Iowa State Cyclones is simple: Beat Arizona State in the Big 12 Championship Game, and you're in the College Football Playoff. Given that this program hasn't won a conference title since before World War I, finding a way to get a win is their sole focus right now. But that doesn't mean it has to be ours: If Iowa State topples the Sun Devils on Saturday afternoon, it raises a whole host of questions about how that might affect the final CFP bracket and who the Cyclones could face in a first-round matchup.
Heading into conference championship Saturday, here are the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings.
- Oregon Ducks (12-0)
- Texas Longhorns (11-1)
- Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1)
- Georgia Bulldogs (10-2)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2)
- Tennessee Volunteers (10-2)
- SMU Mustangs (11-1)
- Indiana Hoosiers (11-1)
- Boise State Broncos (11-1)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3)
- Miami Hurricanes (10-2)
- Ole Miss Rebels (9-3)
- South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3)
- Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2)
- Iowa State Cyclones (10-2)
- Clemson Tigers (9-3)
- BYU Cougars (10-2)
- Missouri Tigers (9-3)
- UNLV Rebels (10-2)
- Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3)
- Syracuse Orange (9-3)
- Colorado Buffaloes (9-3)
- Army Black Knights (10-1)
- Memphis Tigers (10-2)
After Tuesday night's rankings, these are the 12 teams projected to make the playoff right now.
- Oregon Ducks (12-0) (Projected Big Ten champion)
- Texas Longhorns (11-1) (Projected SEC champion)
- SMU Mustangs (11-1) (Projected ACC champion)
- Boise State Broncos (11-1) (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
- Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) (Projected national independent at-large)
- Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) (Projected SEC runner-up)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
- Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) (Projected SEC at-large)
- Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) (Projected SEC at-large)
- Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) (Projected Big 12 champion)
And for a little bit more context, these would be the first four teams out of the playoff picture.
- 13. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) (ACC)
- 14. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) (SEC)
- 15. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) (SEC)
- 16. Iowa State Cyclones (10-2) (Projected Big 12 runner-up)
Now let's dive into where Iowa State would be seeded if it knocks off Arizona State and punches its playoff ticket on Saturday afternoon.
Where would Iowa State be seeded if the Cyclones won the Big 12?
The big break that the Cyclones needed failed to materialize on Friday night, as Boise State cruised to a 21-7 win over UNLV in the Mountain West championship game. The win clinched the Broncos a spot in the College Football Playoff, and also made it nearly impossible for Iowa State to become one of the four highest-ranked conference champions. (Clemson is currently ranked behind the Cyclones, but a win over a top-10 SMU team would likely be enough to vault the Tigers ahead of Iowa State in the final rankings.) If an autobid is out of the question, the only thing left to decide is which seed outside of the top four is most likely.
It sure seems like all signs are pointing to the 12 seed, unless the selection committee wants to buck several weeks worth of trendlines. Yes, Iowa State has the chance to add another ranked win to its resume, while the teams immediately ahead of it in the College Football Playoff rankings sit at home. But it felt like the committee was sending a clear message when it ranked the Cyclones way back at 16th on Tuesday, behind a slew of three-loss SEC teams in Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina as well as two-loss Miami.
The top 10 seeds are basically locked in: Big Ten champion, SEC champion, ACC champion, Boise State, Notre Dame, SEC runner-up, Big Ten runner-up, Ohio State, Tennessee and Indiana. The gap between Iowa State and those other teams is simply too wide right now for the Cyclones to jump any of them with a win over the 15th-ranked Sun Devils. Would a win over Arizona State move Matt Campbell's team ahead of Alabama in the race for the 11th spot? It's possible, but again, jumping five spots in the rankings based on a good but not great win (in the eyes of the committee, at least) feels unlikely, especially against a name brand in the Crimson Tide that the committee clearly loves.
Potential first-round College Football Playoff matchups for Iowa State
Let's say that Iowa State wins on Saturday and does in fact wind up the 12-seed in the final bracket. What might that mean for the Cyclones' first-round matchup in the playoff? They'd draw the fifth seed, which will be the top-ranked at-large team. Who that might be depends on how conference championship weekend plays out.
If the SEC and Big Ten title games give us Texas and Oregon wins, respectively, Georgia and Penn State figure to slide at least somewhat; the Nittany Lions would then have two losses, and could drop behind two-loss Ohio State given that the Buckeyes hold the head-to-head edge. It seems like the most likely scenario for the fifth seed would be Notre Dame, as the one-loss Fighting Irish would be in great position to vault over Penn State.
If Oregon gets upset by the Nittany Lions in the Big Ten title game, the Ducks would likely drop to the top at-large spot, with one loss that looks a lot better than Notre Dame's early upset at the hands of Northern Illinois. If Oregon wins but Texas loses, the committee would have its work cut out for it trying to decide whether the Longhorns (two losses, both to Georgia) or the Irish (one loss but a much worse resume) deserve the fifth spot.