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Where will Texas be seeded in CFP bracket with win or loss in SEC Championship Game?

Texas would be punished by the College Football Playoff by losing to Georgia twice this season.

By John Buhler

Arch Manning, Damon Wilson II, Texas Longhorns, Georgia Bulldogs
Arch Manning, Damon Wilson II, Texas Longhorns, Georgia Bulldogs / Alex Slitz/GettyImages
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It happened before and it could happen again. While both the Georgia Bulldogs and Texas Longhorns are locks to make the College Football Playoff, only one of them is winning the SEC and getting a first-round bye. For various reasons, the general public seems to be behind 11-1 (7-1) Texas getting the best of 10-2 (6-2) Georgia this time around. The Dawgs pummeled the Horns in Austin previously.

I may be emo hedging a bit with the Longhorns having played better football down the stretch, but I also keep coming back to the same point I have had all season long: Who has Texas even played? While they did finally get a quality win of sorts, winning The Lone Star Showdown over Texas A&M did knock the Aggies out of the top 25. Then again, Georgia needed eight overtimes to end up at 10-2.

Here are the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings ahead of Texas' big game vs. Georgia.

  1. Oregon Ducks (12-0)
  2. Texas Longhorns (11-1)
  3. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1)
  4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1)
  5. Georgia Bulldogs (10-2)
  6. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2)
  7. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2)
  8. SMU Mustangs (11-1)
  9. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1)
  10. Boise State Broncos (11-1)
  11. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3)
  12. Miami Hurricanes (10-2)
  13. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3)
  14. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3)
  15. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2)
  16. Iowa State Cyclones (10-2)
  17. Clemson Tigers (9-3)
  18. BYU Cougars (10-2)
  19. Missouri Tigers (9-3)
  20. UNLV Rebels (10-2)
  21. Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3)
  22. Syracuse Orange (9-3)
  23. Colorado Buffaloes (9-3)
  24. Army Black Knights (10-1)
  25. Memphis Tigers (10-2)

Based on Tuesday night's rankings, these would be the 12 teams projected to make the playoff.

  1. Oregon Ducks (12-0) (Projected Big Ten champion)
  2. Texas Longhorns (11-1) (Projected SEC champion)
  3. SMU Mustangs (11-1) (Projected ACC champion)
  4. Boise State Broncos (11-1) (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
  5. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
  6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) (Projected national independent at-large)
  7. Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) (Projected SEC runner-up)
  8. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
  9. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) (Projected SEC at-large)
  10. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
  11. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) (Projected SEC at-large)
  12. Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) (Projected Big 12 champion)

Beyond that, these would be the first four teams out of the playoff picture heading into this weekend.

  • 13. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) (ACC)
  • 14. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) (SEC)
  • 15. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) (SEC)
  • 16. Iowa State Cyclones (10-2) (Projected Big 12 runner-up)

Should Texas do what it is projected to do and beat Georgia, here is where they would be seeded.

Where would Texas be seeded if Longhorns beat Georgia in Atlanta?

Texas is one of a few teams that could actually end with the No. 1 seed. That would require Penn State beating Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game. It would be close, but I have a feeling that the Selection Committee would reward the Nittany Lions with the No. 1 seed if they ended up handing Oregon its first loss of the season. Those are the only three teams who would end up seeded No. 1.

Assuming we get chalk throughout this weekend, here is what the playoff picture could look like.

  1. Oregon Ducks (13-0) (Big Ten champion)
  2. Texas Longhorns (12-1) (SEC champion)
  3. SMU Mustangs (12-1) (ACC champion)
  4. Boise State Broncos (12-1) (Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
  5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) (National independent at-large)
  6. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) (Big Ten at-large)
  7. Georgia Bulldogs (10-3) (SEC runner-up)
  8. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) (Big Ten runner-up)
  9. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) (SEC at-large)
  10. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) (Big Ten at-large)
  11. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) (SEC at-large)
  12. Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2) (Big 12 champion)

The only major impact to be had from the penultimate rankings to this projected final one would be Oregon beating Penn State to win the Big Ten and Texas avenging its lone loss on the season to Georgia to win the SEC in its first season in the league. Oregon would obviously stay at No. 1, as would Texas staying at No. 2. As you can see, only Penn State losing would impact the seeding.

This is because Georgia still has three quality wins on the year to Penn State's zero. Keep in mind that Ohio State owns the head-to-head over both Penn State and Indiana. Georgia has the head-to-head over Tennessee. While Alabama owns the head-to-head over Georgia, the Selection Committee will not punish the Dawgs for suffering its third loss of the season by having to play an additional game.

What if Georgia is able to upset Texas for the second time this season? Where would they be seeded?

How far would Texas fall if Longhorns lost to Georgia for a second time?

Georgia would have arguably the best resume in football if the Dawgs were to beat Texas for the second time this year. That would give them two high-quality wins over Texas, as well as ranked wins over a playoff-bound Tennessee team, as well as over at the very least an ACC finalist in Clemson. However, I cannot see them being ranked any higher than No. 2 because they would have two losses.

Assuming we get chalk everywhere else this weekend, this may be how every playoff team is seeded.

  1. Oregon Ducks (13-0) (Big Ten champion)
  2. Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) (SEC champion)
  3. SMU Mustangs (12-1) (ACC champion)
  4. Boise State Broncos (12-1) (Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
  5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) (National independent at-large)
  6. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) (Big Ten at-large)
  7. Texas Longhorns (11-2) (SEC runner-up)
  8. Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) (Big Ten runner-up)
  9. Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) (SEC at-large)
  10. Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) (Big Ten at-large)
  11. Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) (SEC at-large)
  12. Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2) (Big 12 champion)

Texas would fall if the Longhorns lost to the Dawgs for the second time this season, no matter the margin. They would have two quality losses, both being to Georgia, as well as one borderline quality win over Texas A&M. One could argue that Texas should be seeded No. 6, but I think there is a great chance they would be seeded No. 7 for a few more logical reasons. Let me do my best to explain that.

If Texas was seeded No. 6, they would host No. 11 Alabama. That would be a great TV matchup, but the chances of the Longhorns losing that home game is much higher than if they were seeded No. 7 to host No. 10 Indiana. By flipping them with Ohio State, that would prevent a first-round rematch of the regular season, as the Buckeyes hosted the Hoosiers only a few weeks ago. This is the outcome.

Perhaps third time is a charm, as that would set up a third meeting between Georgia and Texas later?!

How far would Penn State fall if Nittany Lions lost to Oregon? . How far would Penn State fall if Nittany Lions lost to Oregon? . dark. Next

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