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Which double-digit seed has the best chance of reaching the Sweet 16?

History tells us at least one double-digit seed will advance to the Sweet 16, and we think VCU has the best shot to do it.
ByLior Lampert|
VCU v Dayton
VCU v Dayton | Dylan Buell/GettyImages

While March Madness is wildly unpredictable, there are a few recurring themes to remember when filling out your brackets. Chief among those trends is a school shocking the world with an improbable underdog story, AKA a Cinderella.

We see a team come out of the woodwork (nearly) every time around this time of year. Per FOX Sports' Chris Fallica, at least one double-digit seed has reached the Sweet 16 in 16 consecutive NCAA tournaments and 37 of the past 39. Numbers like that are impossible to ignore, though predicting which team(s) survive and advance longer than expected is a thankless job.

Nevertheless, one squad stands out as an intriguing dark horse candidate to win multiple games in the Big Dance: VCU.

No. 11 VCU is the double-digit seed with the best chance of advancing to the Sweet 16 in the 2025 men's NCAA tournament

Fresh off an A-10 double crown, VCU enters the 2025 tourney as the East Region's 11 seed. Notably, their road to the Sweet 16 won't be easy: A red-hot 6-seed in BYU featuring standout junior guard Richie Saunders in awaits them in the first round. Then, should the Rams prevail, they're staring down the barrel of a showdown with 3-seed Wisconsin. Not ideal, to put it simply.

Nonetheless, VCU's résumé speaks for itself. They're fifth in defensive rating, 34th in offense and 31st in KenPom's rankings. The Rams are a well-rounded group that can beat you in multiple ways, boasting the personnel to grind out a slugfest or exchange buckets.

Four of VCU's top five scorers are averaging at least 10 points per game this season, and the fifth is at 9.6. All five players are seniors, highlighting how the Rams are driven by veteran leadership. Experience is a pivotal trait that can't be emulated, and it could be the difference between an early exit or a deep run.

Moreover, VCU gets great guard play, thanks to a strong backcourt headlined by upperclassmen Max Shulga, Joseph Bamisile, Zeb Jackson and Phillip Russell. The Rams have the ball-handling and shot creation to control the pace of a contest, no matter the opponent.

Last, but most certainly not least, the Rams are guided by a head coach who's made a name for himself in the Big Dance. Ryan Odom was at the helm when UMBC defeated Virginia to become the first-ever 16-seed to eliminate a 1-seed in 2018. An unprecedented feat like that doesn't happen by accident, as we've seen based on his tenure at VCU thus far.

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