Thirteen games are all that separate the Milwaukee Bucks from the postseason. As the elimination rounds near, not only do they need to regain possession of the No. 4 seed, but Doc Rivers must simultaneously tighten his rotation for their inevitable first-round clash.
Every team has to squeeze their rotations into 240 minutes and hope they don't have belly fat hanging out. This season alone the Bucks have used 425 different lineup combinations. The postseason tends to whittle that down to eight or nine players. For the sake of this exercise, we’ll demonstrate how a nine-man rotation could shake out.
Milwaukee Bucks potential playoff rotation
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard would absorb anywhere from 25 to 33 percent of those 240 minutes alone. Milwaukee’s lack of a viable backup alternative would pencil Brook Lopez in for another 30-plus minutes on his playoff timesheet. However, that still leaves approximately half unaccounted for.
Milwaukee's most used five-man lineup featured the Giannis-Dame-Lopez triumvirate, in addition to Andre Jackson Jr., and starting power forward Taurean Prince. Unfortunately, Ajax has been banished from the rotation after playing more than 20 minutes per contest until the All-Star break. Meanwhile, Prince remains their indispensable corner-3 merchant.
3-and-D guard A.J. Green is prominently featured in all three of the Bucks' best three-man lineups. The 6-foot-4 Green is in his third year out of Northern Iowa and has emerged as a vital piece of their bench due to his 41 percent career shooting from downtown and surprisingly disciplined perimeter defense. Come playoff time, he should be locked in for approximately 20 or more minutes a night.
Sixth man Bobby Portis will bite into 25 or 30 of the frontcourt minutes as well once he serves the remainder of his 25-game suspension. Kyle Kuzma is still finding his footing in the starting lineup, but his secondary role requires him to sub for Antetokounmpo and serve as the lone starter with bench units.
Kevin Porter Jr.’s primary utility in the rotation involves allowing Lillard to play more off-ball than as the sole executor of the offense. In the last month, KPJ has averaged nearly 50/40/90 splits. Rivers has identified KPJ’s sweet spot as being 15-18 minutes of action a night. If KPJ can trim his turnovers, and play sounder defense, those minutes could increase.
Gary Trent Jr.’s size and shooting stroke help space the floor for Rivers’ rotations but at the expense of defensive integrity. Trent is a long-distance sniper, but he’s a gambler on defense who gets burned too often.
KPJ, Green, and Prince's minutes will deviate depending on the matchup, but all three round out the postseason’s nine-man carousel. If Lopez is healthy, backup center Jericho Sims is likely the odd man out. A rim-running lob threat won’t be essential against the Indiana Pacers. A potential first-round series against the Detroit Pistons could result in Sims earning a handful of minutes against Jalen Duran, but a majority of the center minutes are set aside for Lopez.
When Lopez needs a rest, the Bucks can revert to a small-ball lineup. Unfortunately, most of these scenarios mean Sims, Jackson Jr., and Ryan Rollins will be observers. Doc Rivers has a litany of levers to pull in a seven-game series. It’s just a matter of determining which combinations to use.